Sunday, October 21, 2012

CLOSING the $AMZN Options Action trade - dan

26oct - desk revisiting a trade that dan already closed .. as in closing the barn door after the horses are gone, here is the video clip AMZN clip . per dans tweet / post on oct 25: risk reversal:

 Action: AMZN ($228) Sold to Close half Nov 230/210 Put Spread at 7.50 for a $2.65 gain.

and again later in the day:
2nd Trade Update Oct 25th, 2012 at 1:04pm:   I am closing the second half of this Nov regular Put Spread and I am now going to look to roll strikes and expirations, possibly to weeklies, and risk a portion of the profits that I have made since last Friday.
Action: AMZN ($227.60) Sold to Close 2nd half Nov 230/210 Put Spread at 7.70 for a $2.85 gain.  AVG gain on entire position was 2.75
dan got his move before earning came out and does some nice trade management, he actually rolled this into another trade but for the purpose of his on-air trades i will just count this spread. got a good 50% winner by exiting before earnings and not pushing his luck. see all of dans on-air trades in this spreadsheet

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19 oct - dan nathan with a bearish trade on AMZN today, heres the video clip AMZN clip

Buy the Nov 230/210 put spread for $5.00

good trade setup based on his thesis that stock is going lower, defines the risk. earnings are on thursday.. my usual comments about an "earnings"play.. are to enter this trade the day of earnings or day prior and base your strikes on where it is then..stock could rally 30 points by then and now this put spread might not be positioned where you want it come earnings.. the IV for weeklies will keep creeping higher right up to earnings but as of today the options are pricing in about a 20 point move. so if you thesis is lower that puts it near 220.. i agree with the desks bearish view but dont want to commit $500 for a trade..the other high flyers seem to be moving more than implied so im going to look at some put calenders on thursday..right now targeting the 210 or 215 level..those look to be going for about a buck. compare the payout ratios to a put spread. the 215 calender gets you a 8 to 1 ratio if you can nail a 215 pin, which is also near some support and the 200 day... if thesis is right and you commit that same $500 into 5 put calender you triple the payout..so less capital to commit and better payout..if thesis is right..will look at that on thursday. see all of dans on-air trade in this google docs spreadsheet

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