$DIS Options Action trade alternative

2feb - Tony with an earnings trade on Disney, earnings on 4feb after hours. here is the video clip Disney clip

pretty straight forward by buying a March call spread. stock is 138ish as I type. buying the Mar 130/150 call spread for $5.30. as he said its already 3 dollars in the money. essentially a bullish trade. stock was green on Fridays 2% market selloff but has been hit by the recent virus news and I believe shutdown of theme park in china. so im thinking that the earnings will be all Mandalorian and no virus. virus will be the guidance for next quarter. I would prefer to have the gap fill to 131ish first for a Put sale below the 127 level.

so again, as mainly a premium seller im having a difficult time swallowing a $5.30 debit on the trade despite being the March opex. i always look to limit the price im paying. expected move is near 8 dollars now. Tony mentions the high IV as well. If you have a bullish thesis near term despite the virus overhang instead of paying $5.30 try this calendar spread instead. the expected move gets you to 145-146 level:

Sell the Weekly 149 call at .82 (IV 53)
Buy the March 150 call at 1.85 (IV27)
net debit near $1.00 if you get a generous fill

im thinking the earnings will be good based on the Disney Plus numbers, but caution for the next quarter because of the virus so id expect an initial up move. see the IV difference in the weekly vs the March. if an up move the IV reduces more in the weekly, less in the March. my conviction for an up move is not strong enough to do a Put sale here, would rather see what the reaction is. with my trade if im wrong im only out a dollar vs the $5.30 in tony's trade. but tony would likely close it out prior to full loss. rather risk $1.00 vs $5.30. both trades make money if we get that up move. Risk less make more. For calendars i look to close the whole position within a day or two. i dont try to let the weekly call expire worthless and hold the longer dated one and /or resell another call. if I get the move in my direction I close the win and move on to the next one. whenever I try to get too cute it always costs me. Put this on Tuesday prior to earnings based on where the stock is at that time so you can adjust the strikes.