Buy the Dec 145/135 put spread for $2.80
pretty straight forward with a bearish thesis he is buying a put spread ahead of earnings. i dont follow retailers so cant offer up an alternative. see all of Enis's on-air trades in this spreadsheet
Sunday, October 28, 2012
$RL Options Action trade - Enis
26 oct - Enis on the desk this week trying to break his Options Action cherry with a winning trade. been all bricks so far, heres the video clip RL clip , has a bearish trade on RL
Buy the Dec 145/135 put spread for $2.80
pretty straight forward with a bearish thesis he is buying a put spread ahead of earnings. i dont follow retailers so cant offer up an alternative. see all of Enis's on-air trades in this spreadsheet
Buy the Dec 145/135 put spread for $2.80
pretty straight forward with a bearish thesis he is buying a put spread ahead of earnings. i dont follow retailers so cant offer up an alternative. see all of Enis's on-air trades in this spreadsheet
$AAPL Options action trade - mike
26 oct - mike with a ratio spread to recoup a loss on aaple, heres the video aapl clip . first off as you know from following me, what melissa says is incorrect, "since you are short that extra call you should always do this against stock" ..wrong... you can do this if you have an ITM call also. most viewers are not going to buy a couple hundred shares of aaple. you CAN do this ratio naked if you want but keep in mind that it will require margin because of that second short call...just like when you do a ratio PUT spread...you need margin because of that extra short put...check with your broker on how much margin you need
DEC 600 / 630 call ratio spread (buy one 600 / sell two 630 calls) for $2.00 credit
as usual i prefer to not go out that far on ratio spreads, i would do a Nov ratio spread first.. then do a DEC after Nov expires. historically the issues i have with ratio spreads is i dont take the strikes up high enough, in other words i am right but the stock takes off and goes through the upper strike. mikes is already a bit in the money, if sticking with the DEC options i would look at the 610/640 spread or the 620/650 ..for a move into holidays i would lean towards a thesis that stock moves higher than expected. BUT FIRST, i would do a NOV 605/625 ratio spread for flat.. profit range on that is 605-645.. if its at 645 or higher at Nov opex then reevaluate what levels look good for dec. you need that time decay to chip away at the short calls for ratios to work in your favor so if you go to Dec right away a short term up move will look like a loss until the time decay kicks in vs being able to profit via a Nov ratio spread. dont misinterpret mikes comments that come Dec opex you are out of the stock.. you dont have to sell the underlying..just keep trading these ratio spreads every month instead. you can have a nice income stream every month on just trading ratio spreads , especially if against multiple DITM Leaps like me. say mike gets that 630 pin and pockets a cool $3000...do it again for the next month, mentally lower your cost basis of the stock or Leaps underlying. lots of ways to chop down that money tree. and of course the overemphasizing talk of being "called away" at 660.. tell you what.. at 660 you are closing this ratio for zero, your stock at gained 60 points, and you are looking for another options way to bring in more coin..not selling and walking away... dont you think it will move higher if it moved from 600 to 660 by christmas? see all of mikes on-air trades in this spreadsheet
DEC 600 / 630 call ratio spread (buy one 600 / sell two 630 calls) for $2.00 credit
as usual i prefer to not go out that far on ratio spreads, i would do a Nov ratio spread first.. then do a DEC after Nov expires. historically the issues i have with ratio spreads is i dont take the strikes up high enough, in other words i am right but the stock takes off and goes through the upper strike. mikes is already a bit in the money, if sticking with the DEC options i would look at the 610/640 spread or the 620/650 ..for a move into holidays i would lean towards a thesis that stock moves higher than expected. BUT FIRST, i would do a NOV 605/625 ratio spread for flat.. profit range on that is 605-645.. if its at 645 or higher at Nov opex then reevaluate what levels look good for dec. you need that time decay to chip away at the short calls for ratios to work in your favor so if you go to Dec right away a short term up move will look like a loss until the time decay kicks in vs being able to profit via a Nov ratio spread. dont misinterpret mikes comments that come Dec opex you are out of the stock.. you dont have to sell the underlying..just keep trading these ratio spreads every month instead. you can have a nice income stream every month on just trading ratio spreads , especially if against multiple DITM Leaps like me. say mike gets that 630 pin and pockets a cool $3000...do it again for the next month, mentally lower your cost basis of the stock or Leaps underlying. lots of ways to chop down that money tree. and of course the overemphasizing talk of being "called away" at 660.. tell you what.. at 660 you are closing this ratio for zero, your stock at gained 60 points, and you are looking for another options way to bring in more coin..not selling and walking away... dont you think it will move higher if it moved from 600 to 660 by christmas? see all of mikes on-air trades in this spreadsheet
$GOOG Options Action trade - scott
26 oct - scott on the web extra talking a trade repair for a viewer, here is the clip web extra . a good example of what not to do is what this viewer did, bought Nov 650 calls for $107 ($10700 each) ahead of earnings. not many expected this big down move but when entering a DITM call like that its alway better to go out way into the future in case your thesis is wrong. gives you more time to use other strategies to make some money back. like scotts ratio spread or weekly / monthly calenders. see by buying a front month call this viewers $21000 position is worth $6600 now, going to be difficult to recoup alot of that money in the 3 weeks till opex.. not a good position to be in.
second, viewer committed huge amount of capital to make a bullish trade, sure if stock moves up then youre a hero. like i always say, if you are going to guess on a direction, then guess cheap... calenders , wide call flys would have been my method.. as a minimum sell some of those juiced up weekly OTM calls at least to reduce the cost basis and make it a calender spread. good example of how to blow out your account..not any risk managment that i can see.
but on to the trade.. in order to make back some of the money scott recommending the :
Nov 680/700 call ratio spread (buy one 680 / sell two 700's) for .50 credit
i like the trade setup, but be clear that even if the stock magically pins at 700 to get the max profit of $4000 for the viewer plus the $10000 that the call options will be worth, it will still be a big loser... so best case viewer is down only $8000 vs current $13000 . cnbc does the usual over emphasizing of that your stock "will be called away" at the 700 level.. thats only if you dont do anything and just let this ratio spread go into opex instead of doing what 99% of traders will do and close it out for a profit. tough spot to be in...tails i lose big, heads i lose really big. scott also adds he is not a fan of buying DITM calls because it makes you long the stock..lets see how long it will be before he says the opposite thing . but for scotts spreadsheet / track record it will be good since the only way this ratio spread can "lose" money is if stock is above 720 on Nov opex. see all of scotts on-air trades in this spreadsheet
the other thing about ratio spreads..you dont have to wait for your long postion to lose money to put it on..you can initiate a new long position right now with stock or DITM calls AND ALSO put on a ratio spread at the same time and get a double leveraged upside position with no added buying power needed..so if monday you decided to go long you could add this ratio on top of it for free..free trades are good.
second, viewer committed huge amount of capital to make a bullish trade, sure if stock moves up then youre a hero. like i always say, if you are going to guess on a direction, then guess cheap... calenders , wide call flys would have been my method.. as a minimum sell some of those juiced up weekly OTM calls at least to reduce the cost basis and make it a calender spread. good example of how to blow out your account..not any risk managment that i can see.
but on to the trade.. in order to make back some of the money scott recommending the :
Nov 680/700 call ratio spread (buy one 680 / sell two 700's) for .50 credit
i like the trade setup, but be clear that even if the stock magically pins at 700 to get the max profit of $4000 for the viewer plus the $10000 that the call options will be worth, it will still be a big loser... so best case viewer is down only $8000 vs current $13000 . cnbc does the usual over emphasizing of that your stock "will be called away" at the 700 level.. thats only if you dont do anything and just let this ratio spread go into opex instead of doing what 99% of traders will do and close it out for a profit. tough spot to be in...tails i lose big, heads i lose really big. scott also adds he is not a fan of buying DITM calls because it makes you long the stock..lets see how long it will be before he says the opposite thing . but for scotts spreadsheet / track record it will be good since the only way this ratio spread can "lose" money is if stock is above 720 on Nov opex. see all of scotts on-air trades in this spreadsheet
the other thing about ratio spreads..you dont have to wait for your long postion to lose money to put it on..you can initiate a new long position right now with stock or DITM calls AND ALSO put on a ratio spread at the same time and get a double leveraged upside position with no added buying power needed..so if monday you decided to go long you could add this ratio on top of it for free..free trades are good.
Sunday, October 21, 2012
$LLY Options Action Web Extra trade - scott
19 oct - scott with the web extra trade for a viewer tweet today, heres the video clip LLY clip
Buy the Jan 52.50 / 47 put spread for $1.50
i dont follow the stock but i like the trade setup, when i do put spreads i want to participate right away in the move..not need the stock to fall 10% first and then my spread kicks in.. i would prefer to pick a nearer month than Jan though instead of going that far out. see all of scotts on-air trades in this spreadsheet
Buy the Jan 52.50 / 47 put spread for $1.50
i dont follow the stock but i like the trade setup, when i do put spreads i want to participate right away in the move..not need the stock to fall 10% first and then my spread kicks in.. i would prefer to pick a nearer month than Jan though instead of going that far out. see all of scotts on-air trades in this spreadsheet
update to - $UPS Options Action trade - mike
26 oct - mike with a semi-update on the "final call" segment of the show today, heres the clip final call clip . that little bit of decay he references means that his .85 cent Put is now worth .39.. as in a 50% loss.. but hes staying with it.. hope hes turning over a new leaf on the use of the twitter handle to update trades.
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19 oct - pretty simple trade by mike on UPS, heres the video clip UPS clip
Buy the Nov 70 put for .85
thesis seems good. i guess if you want to take a shot its not much capital to outlay, but you need a move down to 69.15 at opex to be breakeven.. i dont follow the stock to make a suggestion. you dont have to trade everything. i got a kick out of scotts comments how he doesnt like selling a "dollar cheap option" to make it a spread.. noticed he didnt have a problem with it when mike did the BAC 9/10 call spread where the 10 call was a nickel. see all of mikes on - air trades in this spreadsheet
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19 oct - pretty simple trade by mike on UPS, heres the video clip UPS clip
Buy the Nov 70 put for .85
thesis seems good. i guess if you want to take a shot its not much capital to outlay, but you need a move down to 69.15 at opex to be breakeven.. i dont follow the stock to make a suggestion. you dont have to trade everything. i got a kick out of scotts comments how he doesnt like selling a "dollar cheap option" to make it a spread.. noticed he didnt have a problem with it when mike did the BAC 9/10 call spread where the 10 call was a nickel. see all of mikes on - air trades in this spreadsheet
CLOSING the $AMZN Options Action trade - dan
26oct - desk revisiting a trade that dan already closed .. as in closing the barn door after the horses are gone, here is the video clip AMZN clip . per dans tweet / post on oct 25: risk reversal:
Action: AMZN ($228) Sold to Close half Nov 230/210 Put Spread at 7.50 for a $2.65 gain.
and again later in the day:
dan got his move before earning came out and does some nice trade management, he actually rolled this into another trade but for the purpose of his on-air trades i will just count this spread. got a good 50% winner by exiting before earnings and not pushing his luck. see all of dans on-air trades in this spreadsheet
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19 oct - dan nathan with a bearish trade on AMZN today, heres the video clip AMZN clip
Buy the Nov 230/210 put spread for $5.00
good trade setup based on his thesis that stock is going lower, defines the risk. earnings are on thursday.. my usual comments about an "earnings"play.. are to enter this trade the day of earnings or day prior and base your strikes on where it is then..stock could rally 30 points by then and now this put spread might not be positioned where you want it come earnings.. the IV for weeklies will keep creeping higher right up to earnings but as of today the options are pricing in about a 20 point move. so if you thesis is lower that puts it near 220.. i agree with the desks bearish view but dont want to commit $500 for a trade..the other high flyers seem to be moving more than implied so im going to look at some put calenders on thursday..right now targeting the 210 or 215 level..those look to be going for about a buck. compare the payout ratios to a put spread. the 215 calender gets you a 8 to 1 ratio if you can nail a 215 pin, which is also near some support and the 200 day... if thesis is right and you commit that same $500 into 5 put calender you triple the payout..so less capital to commit and better payout..if thesis is right..will look at that on thursday. see all of dans on-air trade in this google docs spreadsheet
Action: AMZN ($228) Sold to Close half Nov 230/210 Put Spread at 7.50 for a $2.65 gain.
and again later in the day:
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19 oct - dan nathan with a bearish trade on AMZN today, heres the video clip AMZN clip
Buy the Nov 230/210 put spread for $5.00
good trade setup based on his thesis that stock is going lower, defines the risk. earnings are on thursday.. my usual comments about an "earnings"play.. are to enter this trade the day of earnings or day prior and base your strikes on where it is then..stock could rally 30 points by then and now this put spread might not be positioned where you want it come earnings.. the IV for weeklies will keep creeping higher right up to earnings but as of today the options are pricing in about a 20 point move. so if you thesis is lower that puts it near 220.. i agree with the desks bearish view but dont want to commit $500 for a trade..the other high flyers seem to be moving more than implied so im going to look at some put calenders on thursday..right now targeting the 210 or 215 level..those look to be going for about a buck. compare the payout ratios to a put spread. the 215 calender gets you a 8 to 1 ratio if you can nail a 215 pin, which is also near some support and the 200 day... if thesis is right and you commit that same $500 into 5 put calender you triple the payout..so less capital to commit and better payout..if thesis is right..will look at that on thursday. see all of dans on-air trade in this google docs spreadsheet
Sunday, October 14, 2012
$EBAY Options Action trade - mike
12 oct - mike with a trade on ebay for earnings which look to be on wednesday, heres the video clip EBAY clip
Buy the Jan 50/55 call spread for 1.40
as melissa points out mikes lack of enthusiasm , i doubt he is doing this trade for real. but an ok trade, defines the risk, goes out a few months. dan makes some good points about volititity.. in his GS trade in the same show he said GS vol was "pumped" with only a 6point spreads.. in this case its accurate with oct IV near 65 and Nov near 34. so he mentioned a calender spread instead.. i might be looking at that myself on wednesday.. the options right this second with stock at 47ish are pricing in about at 3dollar move on earnings.. that gets you to near 50.. so will be looking at the 50 oct/nov call calender which are going for near .50 cents.. so really if you had that cash to commit to a trade.. the 1.40 per lot for mikes trade.. you could commit nearly the same amount and get three calender spreads instead . the risk/reward per trademonster analyse tab on the calenders are 1 to 2.62. the idea being if stock moves towards 50 the Oct call decays rapidly and much more than the Nov 50 giving you a profit. see all of mikes on-air trades in this google docs spreadsheet
Buy the Jan 50/55 call spread for 1.40
as melissa points out mikes lack of enthusiasm , i doubt he is doing this trade for real. but an ok trade, defines the risk, goes out a few months. dan makes some good points about volititity.. in his GS trade in the same show he said GS vol was "pumped" with only a 6point spreads.. in this case its accurate with oct IV near 65 and Nov near 34. so he mentioned a calender spread instead.. i might be looking at that myself on wednesday.. the options right this second with stock at 47ish are pricing in about at 3dollar move on earnings.. that gets you to near 50.. so will be looking at the 50 oct/nov call calender which are going for near .50 cents.. so really if you had that cash to commit to a trade.. the 1.40 per lot for mikes trade.. you could commit nearly the same amount and get three calender spreads instead . the risk/reward per trademonster analyse tab on the calenders are 1 to 2.62. the idea being if stock moves towards 50 the Oct call decays rapidly and much more than the Nov 50 giving you a profit. see all of mikes on-air trades in this google docs spreadsheet
Saturday, October 13, 2012
$ANR Options Action trade - scott
12 oct - sure wish Options Action could be a little more headsup on their stock pricing for their graphics, in the web extra today, scott nations as usual making a recommendation for a viewer on ANR. in their chart they show the weekly chart and a monthly chart with a price of $8.55 but if you look at the price range per freestockcharts.com, the friday range was 8.42-7.55 with a closing at 7.89 ... thats a 10% difference . heres the video clip web extra
Buy the Dec 8/6 put spread for .70
i dont know if they recorded this hit on thursday when stock was actually 8.55 or if they are not paying attention but it smacks of fishiness. cant update the graphics right before airing? so this put spread is going for 10% higher now.. not a huge amount but in the interest of transparancy i would like to see or hear some comment like "when i looked at the stock on thursday" or "when the stock was trading at 8.55, you can get this put spread for .70" vs hindsight trading or taped delayed trades.
regardless, scott makes a good case for why to buy a put spread vs selling a call spread. im not in the coal space so i dont follow this name. my beef is with the lack of attention to detail.. can be misleading if you dont pay attention. see all of scotts on-air trades in this google docs spreadsheet
Buy the Dec 8/6 put spread for .70
i dont know if they recorded this hit on thursday when stock was actually 8.55 or if they are not paying attention but it smacks of fishiness. cant update the graphics right before airing? so this put spread is going for 10% higher now.. not a huge amount but in the interest of transparancy i would like to see or hear some comment like "when i looked at the stock on thursday" or "when the stock was trading at 8.55, you can get this put spread for .70" vs hindsight trading or taped delayed trades.
regardless, scott makes a good case for why to buy a put spread vs selling a call spread. im not in the coal space so i dont follow this name. my beef is with the lack of attention to detail.. can be misleading if you dont pay attention. see all of scotts on-air trades in this google docs spreadsheet
Friday, October 12, 2012
update to $GS Options Action trade - dan
23 oct - as dan tweeted and posted at www.riskreversal.com :
so as you can figure out..he initially committed $1.40 to this trade, the Oct put expired worthless and now selling a Nov Put to further reduce his cost basis to .65, still needing a down move to get a profit.
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19 oct - show revisiting this trade., heres the video clip tonights GS clip . dan again reiterates what he plans to do by selling a lower put to leg into a spread, going to need a down move to make that worthwhile. Scott again comes off as being confused about calender spread trades, as if he doesnt know about capturing the elevated front month premium.. because the stock moved in the opposite direction of the thesis does not make scott correct.. his explaination is what i have issue with. as you can see below i didnt like the trade either but mainly because of the poor payout ratio and that the stock did not actually have a "pumped" IV like dan said.. pass on those low IV calenders
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12 oct - dan with a put calender on GS for earnings, here is the video clip GS clip . first off, dan says the Oct options IV is elevated, they are "pumped" . lets see, per trademonster, the oct options have 32 iv vs Nov 26... elevated yes, Pumped no.. i would not call a 6 point difference "pumped" .
Buy the Oct / Nov 115 put calender for $1.40 per lot (sell the Oct 115, buy the Nov 115)
dan lays out his strategy of what he wants to happen and what he plans to do. the best part is when scott nations opens his mouth and really gets taking to school by dan and mike. really makes himself look amatuer with comment. traders enter calender spreads to take advantage of the IV difference, not to double thread the needle at one opex and then the other. a classic beatdown. if you look at the options pricing right now, about a $4.50 move is getting priced in. if thats accurate it will take stock right to dans optimum strike. reservation i have is that since the IV difference is only 6 points, even a near perfect pin gets you only about a 50% gain per trademonster analyse tab..in other words not a high enough payout ratio. about a 1:1.63 ratio. ill pass for something juicer. see all of dans on-air trades in this google docs spreadsheet
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19 oct - show revisiting this trade., heres the video clip tonights GS clip . dan again reiterates what he plans to do by selling a lower put to leg into a spread, going to need a down move to make that worthwhile. Scott again comes off as being confused about calender spread trades, as if he doesnt know about capturing the elevated front month premium.. because the stock moved in the opposite direction of the thesis does not make scott correct.. his explaination is what i have issue with. as you can see below i didnt like the trade either but mainly because of the poor payout ratio and that the stock did not actually have a "pumped" IV like dan said.. pass on those low IV calenders
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12 oct - dan with a put calender on GS for earnings, here is the video clip GS clip . first off, dan says the Oct options IV is elevated, they are "pumped" . lets see, per trademonster, the oct options have 32 iv vs Nov 26... elevated yes, Pumped no.. i would not call a 6 point difference "pumped" .
Buy the Oct / Nov 115 put calender for $1.40 per lot (sell the Oct 115, buy the Nov 115)
dan lays out his strategy of what he wants to happen and what he plans to do. the best part is when scott nations opens his mouth and really gets taking to school by dan and mike. really makes himself look amatuer with comment. traders enter calender spreads to take advantage of the IV difference, not to double thread the needle at one opex and then the other. a classic beatdown. if you look at the options pricing right now, about a $4.50 move is getting priced in. if thats accurate it will take stock right to dans optimum strike. reservation i have is that since the IV difference is only 6 points, even a near perfect pin gets you only about a 50% gain per trademonster analyse tab..in other words not a high enough payout ratio. about a 1:1.63 ratio. ill pass for something juicer. see all of dans on-air trades in this google docs spreadsheet
Monday, October 8, 2012
update to the $JPM Options Action trade - dan
22 oct - dan making an adjustment to this trade per his tweet/ posting:
Buy the Oct/Nov 41 put calender (sell the Oct 41, buy the Nov 41puts) for .50
dans on-air trades
3:35 pm EDT - October 22, 2012 By
Trade Update Oct 22nd, 2012: With Oct expiration come and gone, the Oct 41 Puts that I was short expired worthless, and I am left long the Nov 41 Puts, for .48, the price I paid for the calendar.
JPM is noticeably weaker today than its money-center peers BAC and C, which is likely a continuation of a rotation into C since its Q3 earnings last Monday and CEO change last Tuesday.
I am now going to spread the Puts that I own and reduce my premium risk and break-even level, but cap my potential gains.
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Break-Even on Nov Exp: my original cost for Calendar was .48, less the .42 I received for selling the Nov 40 Puts, so my Max Risk is .06, my Max Gain is .94 if the stock is 40 or below on Nov Expiration.
5 oct - again a short post, dan with a put calender on JPM with earnings friday. note what he says in this clip, that he will do this trade in earnest later in the week. he also featured this trade on his website, i got the impression he already put it on, i might be wrong but just note his on-air comment. JPM segment and end of this clipJPM is noticeably weaker today than its money-center peers BAC and C, which is likely a continuation of a rotation into C since its Q3 earnings last Monday and CEO change last Tuesday.
I am now going to spread the Puts that I own and reduce my premium risk and break-even level, but cap my potential gains.
Action: Sold to Open JPM ($41.80) Nov 40 Puts at .42
New Position: Long JPM Nov 41/40 Put Spread for .06
again a good job of managing this position, now his cost basis is six cents..thats the max loss he can now have.----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Break-Even on Nov Exp: my original cost for Calendar was .48, less the .42 I received for selling the Nov 40 Puts, so my Max Risk is .06, my Max Gain is .94 if the stock is 40 or below on Nov Expiration.
Buy the Oct/Nov 41 put calender (sell the Oct 41, buy the Nov 41puts) for .50
dans on-air trades
update to $VLO Options Action trade - mike
26 oct - mike again with a tweet to update a trade adjustment, this Dec 36 call is going for .14 now so huge loser so far with 2 months to go, per mike:
5oct - a bit late posting this so will keep it brief, mike with a simple buy upside call strategy on VLO, heres the video VLO clip
buy the Dec 36 call for .95
mikes on-air trades in google docs spreadsheet
Also converting the VLO into a risk reversal, selling the Dec 27 puts @ 1.05, stk has come in significantly.
if stock stays above 27 at opex it will salvage the position for small profit at least. note that now you have to commit margin/buying power to cover these short puts which are getting put on to salvage a defined risk call purchase. (adding risk to position)
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5oct - a bit late posting this so will keep it brief, mike with a simple buy upside call strategy on VLO, heres the video VLO clip
buy the Dec 36 call for .95
mikes on-air trades in google docs spreadsheet
Friday, October 5, 2012
$AAPL Options Action web extra trade - scott
5 oct - this might be one of the goofiest trades yet.. goofy because of what scott is saying in his description, heres the web extra clip AAPL clip . viewer in a nutshell is worried about his aaple stock and thinks he should sell and instead buy a July 2013 660 call (which is going for about $7400) .. lets make an assumption that Joe Viewer has 100shares . Instead, scott recommends to:
Buy the Jan 700 call for $30 ($3000)
What gets me is the phrase that by buying this call "i am protected to the downside if AAPL continues to fall".. how is that exactly? your $3000 goes down as apple continues to fall... saying you only spent $3000 on an option vs owning the stock and it goes down does not equal protection.. you just lost less. "but has to rally a bit before i get to participate again" he says next.. so thats the position you want to put yourself in ?? you think the stock is going down so you buy a call and it will still lose money and then you need it to rally a bit? seems really bass akwards thinking to me. how about this... since mr. viewer is worried about the downside.. keep the stock and instead do a put spread collar.. the Nov 675 / 650/590 collar . as in sell the Nov 675 call for about $20, then use that cash to buy the Nov 650/590 put spread for about $20.. so zero cost to get you $60 of downside protection...thats what i think of when i hear "im protected to the downside". also gives you $25 more upside potential. the thing is i think scotts trade will make money but im not buying the explanation..would use that $3000 and buy call spreads closer to ATM instead.see all of scotts on air trades in this google docs spreadsheet
click-->Follow @Mark_Lexus to follow on twitter
Buy the Jan 700 call for $30 ($3000)
What gets me is the phrase that by buying this call "i am protected to the downside if AAPL continues to fall".. how is that exactly? your $3000 goes down as apple continues to fall... saying you only spent $3000 on an option vs owning the stock and it goes down does not equal protection.. you just lost less. "but has to rally a bit before i get to participate again" he says next.. so thats the position you want to put yourself in ?? you think the stock is going down so you buy a call and it will still lose money and then you need it to rally a bit? seems really bass akwards thinking to me. how about this... since mr. viewer is worried about the downside.. keep the stock and instead do a put spread collar.. the Nov 675 / 650/590 collar . as in sell the Nov 675 call for about $20, then use that cash to buy the Nov 650/590 put spread for about $20.. so zero cost to get you $60 of downside protection...thats what i think of when i hear "im protected to the downside". also gives you $25 more upside potential. the thing is i think scotts trade will make money but im not buying the explanation..would use that $3000 and buy call spreads closer to ATM instead.see all of scotts on air trades in this google docs spreadsheet
click-->Follow @Mark_Lexus to follow on twitter
Monday, October 1, 2012
$FB Options Action trade - dan
28 sep - if you read dans write up on his website on this trade you will see he mentioned that he is not buying the stock here to do this trade. that was not made too clear in the Facebook clip . so like i said before, just because you see it on air does not mean there is money behind it.. so its a bit deceiving when he says "i bought this and i sold that"
Buy the Jan 24/27 call ratio for zero (buy one 24, sell two 27's)
I like ratio spreads, they have a very high probability of being profitable, i prefer to do them in a series of monthly ratios vs going out 3-4 months. this can also be used against an ITM call not just stock. what scott does not do a good job explaining with useless comments of "the options math is against you" is that you will not see those full profits till the Jan opex...since you need the 27short calls to decay, they will more that offset the gain of the 24call in the near term..so be prepared to wait 3 months. see all of dans on-air trades in this google docs spreadsheet
click-->Follow @Mark_Lexus to follow on twitter
Buy the Jan 24/27 call ratio for zero (buy one 24, sell two 27's)
I like ratio spreads, they have a very high probability of being profitable, i prefer to do them in a series of monthly ratios vs going out 3-4 months. this can also be used against an ITM call not just stock. what scott does not do a good job explaining with useless comments of "the options math is against you" is that you will not see those full profits till the Jan opex...since you need the 27short calls to decay, they will more that offset the gain of the 24call in the near term..so be prepared to wait 3 months. see all of dans on-air trades in this google docs spreadsheet
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update to $HAL Options Action trade - mike
26 oct - been about a month since the trade was featured on -air and blamm, out of the blue a mike khouw tweet about a trade adjustment. first off, the Jan37 call is going for about .40 now.. so 60% loss so far with several months to go for opex.. per mikes tweet:
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28 sep - on the show on friday mike khouw and carter worth again for a trade, heres the clip HAL clip . a discrepency on this trade..mike SAYS to buy the Jan 36 call, so does the transcript, but the graphic shows the jan37 call.. when i looked at the options prices after hours...the pricing lines up more with the 37strike so im going with that..just a note, just because a "trade" is featured on the show does not necessarily mean they put their money where their mouth is..i get the feeling based his tone and the phrasing that he did not actually put this trade on.
Buy the Jan 37 call for $1.00
pretty simple trade, bullish thesis, so buying an upside call.. as usual when going out a few months like this i would recommend to make it a calender spread instead to lower your cost basis a bit..not a lot of premium with HAL but right now could sell the Oct 37 for 12 cents...so would lower cost basis 12percent. Easy Peezy. see all of mikes on-air trades in this google docs spreadsheet
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Converting my long HAL call to a risk/reversal by selling Jan 30 puts @ .92.
pretty self explanitory, now selling the Puts to help finance the previously purchased calls. so as long as stock is above 30 at opex the "trade" will only lose 8cents. interesting way to leg into a risk reversal.
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28 sep - on the show on friday mike khouw and carter worth again for a trade, heres the clip HAL clip . a discrepency on this trade..mike SAYS to buy the Jan 36 call, so does the transcript, but the graphic shows the jan37 call.. when i looked at the options prices after hours...the pricing lines up more with the 37strike so im going with that..just a note, just because a "trade" is featured on the show does not necessarily mean they put their money where their mouth is..i get the feeling based his tone and the phrasing that he did not actually put this trade on.
Buy the Jan 37 call for $1.00
pretty simple trade, bullish thesis, so buying an upside call.. as usual when going out a few months like this i would recommend to make it a calender spread instead to lower your cost basis a bit..not a lot of premium with HAL but right now could sell the Oct 37 for 12 cents...so would lower cost basis 12percent. Easy Peezy. see all of mikes on-air trades in this google docs spreadsheet
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Saturday, September 29, 2012
$SPY Options Action trade - scott
28 sep - on the web extra today , scott has a SPY trade in response to a viewer question, heres the clip web extra
Buy the Jan 143/130 put spread for 3.25
im not a big fan of going so far out for my protection, i would do a serious of put spreads vs one big one that far out. scott says he wants the protection to kick in right away, sure, this will gain a bit if market goes down next week, but so will a put spread thats for Oct opex. but lets look at if this protection "kicks in right away" come Jan opex. as shown in the video clip, the SPY needs to be at 139.75 at jan opex to "kick in right away"...so in other words you will suffer a 10% loss FIRST before you protection kicks in right away. hardly my definition of protection. see all of scotts on-air trades in this google docs spreadsheet
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Buy the Jan 143/130 put spread for 3.25
im not a big fan of going so far out for my protection, i would do a serious of put spreads vs one big one that far out. scott says he wants the protection to kick in right away, sure, this will gain a bit if market goes down next week, but so will a put spread thats for Oct opex. but lets look at if this protection "kicks in right away" come Jan opex. as shown in the video clip, the SPY needs to be at 139.75 at jan opex to "kick in right away"...so in other words you will suffer a 10% loss FIRST before you protection kicks in right away. hardly my definition of protection. see all of scotts on-air trades in this google docs spreadsheet
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Friday, September 21, 2012
$MSFT Options Action web extra trade - scott
21 sep - scott doing the web extra again tonight and answers a viewer note, heres the clip web extra . viewer writes she has held the stock for "a very long time and has done nothing"... thats seems a couple years to me.. but then again its up 30% since last year..regardless..depends on your thesis for entering into MSFT.. for the dividend, for the tech exposure, for the windows 8 hype..dont know but also depends on how many shares she has.. have 1000 shares and wish you had bought apple...then dont mess around looking for a secret options strategy to make something happen in order to get out.. if "its done nothing".. sell..sell it now and get into AAPL Jan2015 DITM leaps with that money... sell whats not moving or what hasnt moved and put it to work elsewhere.
but if you are married to MSFT and still want some type of options play AND want to get out , scotts Nov Ratio spread might work . see all of scotts on-air trades in this google docs spreadsheet
Buy the Nov 32/33 call ratio spread (buy one 32, sell two 33's) for zero (for every 100 shares you own), its a good setup.. if its below 32 at opex then no harm no foul, above 34 and you stock gets called away
i like ratio spreads and profit range on this one at Nov opex is 32-34. my alternative is if you want to keep holding, keep collecting that dividend, stable stock price..yada yada.. then instead go out 2months and sell the Nov 33 covered call for about .31... if you are ok with selling your stock a bit higher be more aggressive and sell the Nov32 covered call at about .60.. collect that premium..collect your dividends, keep the stock.. depends what your thesis is.
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but if you are married to MSFT and still want some type of options play AND want to get out , scotts Nov Ratio spread might work . see all of scotts on-air trades in this google docs spreadsheet
Buy the Nov 32/33 call ratio spread (buy one 32, sell two 33's) for zero (for every 100 shares you own), its a good setup.. if its below 32 at opex then no harm no foul, above 34 and you stock gets called away
i like ratio spreads and profit range on this one at Nov opex is 32-34. my alternative is if you want to keep holding, keep collecting that dividend, stable stock price..yada yada.. then instead go out 2months and sell the Nov 33 covered call for about .31... if you are ok with selling your stock a bit higher be more aggressive and sell the Nov32 covered call at about .60.. collect that premium..collect your dividends, keep the stock.. depends what your thesis is.
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CLOSING the $NKE Options Action trade - Mike
28 sep - show revisits the trade from last week with the usual graphic heavy lead in and oversize smiles. was a good winner and included a surprising and possibly first of its kind real live tweet from mike khouw updating the trade during the trading day. the stock opened right at the short 92.50 strike area, once i saw mikes tweet i priced this spread out at about 1.40 , so nearly a double. mike sums it up nicely in todays video clip, todays clip , about taking this trade off right away after the event. if you followed this trade and for some reason did not close it out in the morning, you can still take a profit on the Oct puts which were going for about a dollar..or if you want to get cute you can do another calender spread by again selling the 92.50 weekly put..which was going for about .30. nevertheless, a good trade and good followup for a change. see all of mikes on-air trades in this google docs spreadsheet
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21 sep - mike khouw with a trade on Nike for earnings which look to be next thursday, heres the video NKE clip
Buy the 92.50 weekly / Oct put calender for .75
i like the trade setup, would wait till day of or day prior to putting this on in case there is a move before that so you can base your strike selections on where you are at that point.. mike using the 92.50 strike since that is about where options are pricing in a move to right now.. its a cheap bet as well..since earnings are on thursday p.m. , if you get the direction correct the front month puts will decay big time since they only have one day to trade till they expire. see all of mikes on-air trades in this google docs spreadsheet
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21 sep - mike khouw with a trade on Nike for earnings which look to be next thursday, heres the video NKE clip
Buy the 92.50 weekly / Oct put calender for .75
i like the trade setup, would wait till day of or day prior to putting this on in case there is a move before that so you can base your strike selections on where you are at that point.. mike using the 92.50 strike since that is about where options are pricing in a move to right now.. its a cheap bet as well..since earnings are on thursday p.m. , if you get the direction correct the front month puts will decay big time since they only have one day to trade till they expire. see all of mikes on-air trades in this google docs spreadsheet
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CLOSING the $GOOG Options Action trade - Dan
20 oct - wow. this would have been a huge winner.. options action really missed a great opportunity to have a great segment with the slow motion smiles, music and cheesy graphics had dan left this earnings play on. would have been a 500% + winner since stock closed near 681.. per dans tweet / write up on his site, dans write up , he closed the spread at $6.00 for a $1.00 profit. tough break on that one.
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21 sep - on the show tonight dan has a bearish trade for google, heres the video clip, GOOG clip .. dan also has this trade posted on his website for free so you can read about it there too dans writeup
Buy the Oct 715/680/645 put butterfly for $5.00
my few concerns about this trade based on his thesis in the video, he is making this a bearish bet on an earnings move. earnings date is 11oct unconfirmed per briefing .com . this will profit if the stock pulls back before then but the biggest chunk of profits you will see will be after that move from earnings, you will not see much if it moves down now..."much" vs his stated $30 possible at opex...im thinking its premature to get into an earnings trade..might work, might not... he is taking a directional bet, so with that i would wait till day of or day prior to the earnings date and base my strike selections on where the stock is then..my choice would also be a put calender vs a call fly right here right now. dan references the implied move but thats misleading this far out , the weekly option premium and IV will be a more accurate gage of that vs the Oct monthly data now. see all of dans on-air trades in this google docs spreadsheet
i find it amusing that just 2 weeks ago dan bought the latest samsung phone and now goes along with the herd and gets an iphone 5..can you even return phones and get the money back?
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21 sep - on the show tonight dan has a bearish trade for google, heres the video clip, GOOG clip .. dan also has this trade posted on his website for free so you can read about it there too dans writeup
Buy the Oct 715/680/645 put butterfly for $5.00
my few concerns about this trade based on his thesis in the video, he is making this a bearish bet on an earnings move. earnings date is 11oct unconfirmed per briefing .com . this will profit if the stock pulls back before then but the biggest chunk of profits you will see will be after that move from earnings, you will not see much if it moves down now..."much" vs his stated $30 possible at opex...im thinking its premature to get into an earnings trade..might work, might not... he is taking a directional bet, so with that i would wait till day of or day prior to the earnings date and base my strike selections on where the stock is then..my choice would also be a put calender vs a call fly right here right now. dan references the implied move but thats misleading this far out , the weekly option premium and IV will be a more accurate gage of that vs the Oct monthly data now. see all of dans on-air trades in this google docs spreadsheet
i find it amusing that just 2 weeks ago dan bought the latest samsung phone and now goes along with the herd and gets an iphone 5..can you even return phones and get the money back?
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Friday, September 14, 2012
update to $WFC Options Action trade - Dan
12 oct - Options action should have covered this last week since dan made this adjustment on 2oct like i posted below..so 10 days have gone by if you entered the trade and didnt catch the tweet. heres the video clip WFC clip . the long jan38call that dan is holding is going for about .35 now. would have said try to sell front month calls against it to further lower the cost basis while waiting to "spread it out" ..in this case the Nov38 are going for just pennies so scratch that idea . in hindsight , when closing out the Put of a risk reversal to free up buying power it might be tactically better to "spread out" that call at same time to bring in more premium, ie lower the cost basis, or just close out the call as well..since your thinking its going lower anyway , thats why youre buying back the Put. going to need a decent move on this slow money stock to get a profit now.
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2oct - interesting how this is playing out. see it alot, when traders sell a put or do a risk reversal and the stock moves down a bit, they get shaken out. the would be ok owning it lower thinking gets thrown out the window. you can see dans write up on what hes doing here risk reversal . Basically buying back the short 33put for a loss of .22 and holding the long call. still has 3 months to go till opex so was a bit surprised that hes jumping ship so soon. will keep tracking that long call .
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14 sep - as posted on his website also, Dan has a risk reversal trade on the show today for WFC, heres the clip WFC clip
Buy the Jan 33/38 risk reversal for .10 (sell the 33 Put / buy the 38 call )
i like risk reversals, usually high probability winning trades.. my usual comments, the "you may have to buy the stock" commentary goes along with these type of trades because of the short Put..you have almost no risk of getting "put the stock" until the Jan opex, wish that was made more clear. also figure on having to set aside buying power/margin equal to having to buy the stock at 33..so figure $3300 depending on your margin situation. although you can do risk reversals on any stock, they tend to work better if you are ok owning that particular stock if it goes down..many say they would but chicken out when it goes lower and just take the loss vs getting put the stock.. so decide which camp you are in before entering... if stock moves up nicely look to close out that short put and possibly selling an upside call to "spread it out" . see all of dans on-air trades in this google docs spreadsheet
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2oct - interesting how this is playing out. see it alot, when traders sell a put or do a risk reversal and the stock moves down a bit, they get shaken out. the would be ok owning it lower thinking gets thrown out the window. you can see dans write up on what hes doing here risk reversal . Basically buying back the short 33put for a loss of .22 and holding the long call. still has 3 months to go till opex so was a bit surprised that hes jumping ship so soon. will keep tracking that long call .
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14 sep - as posted on his website also, Dan has a risk reversal trade on the show today for WFC, heres the clip WFC clip
Buy the Jan 33/38 risk reversal for .10 (sell the 33 Put / buy the 38 call )
i like risk reversals, usually high probability winning trades.. my usual comments, the "you may have to buy the stock" commentary goes along with these type of trades because of the short Put..you have almost no risk of getting "put the stock" until the Jan opex, wish that was made more clear. also figure on having to set aside buying power/margin equal to having to buy the stock at 33..so figure $3300 depending on your margin situation. although you can do risk reversals on any stock, they tend to work better if you are ok owning that particular stock if it goes down..many say they would but chicken out when it goes lower and just take the loss vs getting put the stock.. so decide which camp you are in before entering... if stock moves up nicely look to close out that short put and possibly selling an upside call to "spread it out" . see all of dans on-air trades in this google docs spreadsheet
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CLOSING the $AAPL Options action trade - Mike
21 sep - the show tonight revisits this trade for whatever reason after only a week, i guess since its all about AAPL day. heres the clip, starts at about the 4min mark AAPL clip .. carter sums it up nicely.. "not a whole lot has happened in 5 days" ..exactly..dont know why revisit this with several others hanging out there..losers not good for ratings i guess. so if you pull up this spread its up about a dollar...thats right..bought for $20, now can close for $21...listen to mikes wishy washy answer .. after all that from last week, like he forgot that he was the one suggesting this one. based on that lame response i will close it out in the spreadsheet since he "can only have so many things in his book".
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14 sep - carter worth and mike khouw with a trade on AAPL on the show this week. heres the clip, AAPL clip .. carter has not had a good track record lately but comes up with a bullish recommendation today.
Buy the Jan 675/715 call spread for $20 ($2000)
this is one of the more wacky trades ive seen mike suggest..first he prefaces his comments that "i dont want to lay out a great deal of premium"... well sweet sassy molassy...$2000 bucks..guess hes big time..spending $2000 to make $2000 does not fit the often advertised slogan of risk less to make more.. hes correct that the spread will not lose money if stock stays flat, but essentially wants stock to go up from here. there are way cheaper ways to set that up..mike seems to be making the comparison that instead of buying the stock at 700, to buy this call spread for $20....ok, but how about another trade vs buying the call spread for $20. i like dans comments at the end of the clip about not liking the risk reward. true dat .
it might work out but my objective then would be to make a lower premium trade for a luke warm bullish thesis. instead of mikes in the money call spread, id go for a Jan 700/740/780 call fly if you are locked into a Jan trade.. might get for about $540.. mildly bullish, risks way less.. big profitable range if you get the christmas hype going, risk less to make more.. see all of mikes on-air trades in this google docs spreadsheet
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14 sep - carter worth and mike khouw with a trade on AAPL on the show this week. heres the clip, AAPL clip .. carter has not had a good track record lately but comes up with a bullish recommendation today.
Buy the Jan 675/715 call spread for $20 ($2000)
this is one of the more wacky trades ive seen mike suggest..first he prefaces his comments that "i dont want to lay out a great deal of premium"... well sweet sassy molassy...$2000 bucks..guess hes big time..spending $2000 to make $2000 does not fit the often advertised slogan of risk less to make more.. hes correct that the spread will not lose money if stock stays flat, but essentially wants stock to go up from here. there are way cheaper ways to set that up..mike seems to be making the comparison that instead of buying the stock at 700, to buy this call spread for $20....ok, but how about another trade vs buying the call spread for $20. i like dans comments at the end of the clip about not liking the risk reward. true dat .
it might work out but my objective then would be to make a lower premium trade for a luke warm bullish thesis. instead of mikes in the money call spread, id go for a Jan 700/740/780 call fly if you are locked into a Jan trade.. might get for about $540.. mildly bullish, risks way less.. big profitable range if you get the christmas hype going, risk less to make more.. see all of mikes on-air trades in this google docs spreadsheet
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$SLV Options Action web extra trade - scott
14 sep - scott talking at SLV trade in the options action web extra, heres the video clip SLV clip
Buy the Dec 33.50/37 call spread for 1.20
i dont follow silver, gold either really.. but seems like most on the network are buying into the belief that both are going higher thanks to the Fed actions. scotts setup is straight forward and goes out a few months to give it time to work, max profit at 37 or above. only alternative that would come to mind is a risk reversal or call spread risk reversal... selling a put to finance this trade if you have the margin for it. see all of scotts on-air trades in this google docs spreadsheet
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Buy the Dec 33.50/37 call spread for 1.20
i dont follow silver, gold either really.. but seems like most on the network are buying into the belief that both are going higher thanks to the Fed actions. scotts setup is straight forward and goes out a few months to give it time to work, max profit at 37 or above. only alternative that would come to mind is a risk reversal or call spread risk reversal... selling a put to finance this trade if you have the margin for it. see all of scotts on-air trades in this google docs spreadsheet
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Monday, September 10, 2012
CLOSING the $LNKD Trade of the Day - Scott
21 sep - no change...going to be a max loss also with stock near 121 still
19 sep - if you followed scott into this trade its worth about 2 cents now, need something dramatic to happen in next 2 days to salvage anything. LNKD defying gravity for another month. just a comment about being at the top of the bollinger bands.. nothing says stock has to sell off when its at the top.. can just as easily go sideways or slow its rate of increase which is what happened here.. stock up 6 bucks from this entry.
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10 sep - a very rare on-air trade by scott nations during fast money tonight, was featured as the trade of the day but since hes on options action ill add it to the tracking spreadsheet, heres the video clip LNKD clip
buy the Sep115/105 put spread for $1.55
not much time for this to play out, pretty straightforward with a bearish thesis. but at least its a cheap shot, right near top bollinger bands. no alternative suggestion this time.. sometimes its just a no trade. see all of scotts on air trades in this google docs spreadsheet . i dont expect to see an update to this trade on -air or via scotts twitter.
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19 sep - if you followed scott into this trade its worth about 2 cents now, need something dramatic to happen in next 2 days to salvage anything. LNKD defying gravity for another month. just a comment about being at the top of the bollinger bands.. nothing says stock has to sell off when its at the top.. can just as easily go sideways or slow its rate of increase which is what happened here.. stock up 6 bucks from this entry.
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10 sep - a very rare on-air trade by scott nations during fast money tonight, was featured as the trade of the day but since hes on options action ill add it to the tracking spreadsheet, heres the video clip LNKD clip
buy the Sep115/105 put spread for $1.55
not much time for this to play out, pretty straightforward with a bearish thesis. but at least its a cheap shot, right near top bollinger bands. no alternative suggestion this time.. sometimes its just a no trade. see all of scotts on air trades in this google docs spreadsheet . i dont expect to see an update to this trade on -air or via scotts twitter.
CLOSING the $AAPL mid day Options Action trade - dan
14 sep - going to be a full loss if you did nothing, had a decent profit on the selloff before the apple event, did not see any updates online or on air about closing this Put or "spreading it out" . thesis was for a selloff after the event so probably held. stock now near 695 so option will expire worthless
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10 sep - a rare options action trade on Fast Money , heres the clip aapl hit , dan with a pretty straight forward Put purchase for a apple event selloff / protection. with stock near 675
Buy the Sep weekly 665 put for $6.00
already a good gain an hour later. see how it looks after the event. see all of dans on-air trades in this google docs spreadsheet
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10 sep - a rare options action trade on Fast Money , heres the clip aapl hit , dan with a pretty straight forward Put purchase for a apple event selloff / protection. with stock near 675
Buy the Sep weekly 665 put for $6.00
already a good gain an hour later. see how it looks after the event. see all of dans on-air trades in this google docs spreadsheet
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CLOSING the $AAPL options action trade - dan
20oct - read dans write up from below, dans write up . by "spreading this out" , he locked in a profit and with stock selling off since then it was a timely move.. essentially a $3.00 profit. nicely done . see all of dans on-air trades in this google docs spreadsheet
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21 sep - like i said below, read what dan wrote on his site. tonights show revisits this trade and after a painful 3 minute graphic and music laden lead in Dan hardly says anything, no specifics..if i had not previouslly read what he had done i would not be clear on what he did..wonder why he did not mention prices, max profits, minimum profits, specific strikes..seems odd since the segment title was "how to make more money in AAPL" , heres tonights video clip AAPL clip
21 sep - going to be easier if you just read what dan wrote on his website instead of me paraphrasing it, dans write up . now he has a no lose trade. the scenario didnt play out like he expected but the stock moved as he wanted which is what matters. he closed the Sep short call and Sold the Oct 705 call ..will leave it open on spreadsheet until the final profit is known at Oct opex. nicely done and fully transparent..cue the dancing bears
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7sep - dan nathan with a trade on AAPL from the show, heres the clip AAPL clip
Buy the Sep/Oct 700 call calender (sell the Sep 700, buy the Oct 700) for $10.50 ($1050 per one lot)
i generally like calender spreads as a way to reduce your capital outlay, this one is a bit pricey for me though. melissa makes a good point about the timing of this spread in her question to mike. dans own thesis is that iphone 5 dissappoints and stock sells off a bit, but then rebounds on speculation of the smaller ipad. could happen i guess, just seems like cheaper ways to put on that trade vs a $1000 outlay. this spread will be a nice winner if iphone does not disappoint and it moves up to 700 prior to sep opex... just seems a bit bass ackwards on his timing based on his thesis. id be more inclined put on a cheap near term position(maybe a 10or15 wide call fly, such as the Sep685/700/715 call fly for about $2.00) for a possible upside move on iphone announcement AND wait for that sell the news selloff THEN enter for a bullish rebound and/or mini ipad ramp(maybe a risk reversal or credit put spread then). different ways to skin this cat but $1000 is too pricey for me based on the thesis. see all of dans on-air trades in this google docs spreadsheet. if you do this trade, after Sep opex, consider selling weekly 700calls against that remaining Oct long call to further reduce your cost.
have you figured out what this picture has to do with AAPL yet?
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21 sep - like i said below, read what dan wrote on his site. tonights show revisits this trade and after a painful 3 minute graphic and music laden lead in Dan hardly says anything, no specifics..if i had not previouslly read what he had done i would not be clear on what he did..wonder why he did not mention prices, max profits, minimum profits, specific strikes..seems odd since the segment title was "how to make more money in AAPL" , heres tonights video clip AAPL clip
21 sep - going to be easier if you just read what dan wrote on his website instead of me paraphrasing it, dans write up . now he has a no lose trade. the scenario didnt play out like he expected but the stock moved as he wanted which is what matters. he closed the Sep short call and Sold the Oct 705 call ..will leave it open on spreadsheet until the final profit is known at Oct opex. nicely done and fully transparent..cue the dancing bears
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7sep - dan nathan with a trade on AAPL from the show, heres the clip AAPL clip
Buy the Sep/Oct 700 call calender (sell the Sep 700, buy the Oct 700) for $10.50 ($1050 per one lot)
i generally like calender spreads as a way to reduce your capital outlay, this one is a bit pricey for me though. melissa makes a good point about the timing of this spread in her question to mike. dans own thesis is that iphone 5 dissappoints and stock sells off a bit, but then rebounds on speculation of the smaller ipad. could happen i guess, just seems like cheaper ways to put on that trade vs a $1000 outlay. this spread will be a nice winner if iphone does not disappoint and it moves up to 700 prior to sep opex... just seems a bit bass ackwards on his timing based on his thesis. id be more inclined put on a cheap near term position(maybe a 10or15 wide call fly, such as the Sep685/700/715 call fly for about $2.00) for a possible upside move on iphone announcement AND wait for that sell the news selloff THEN enter for a bullish rebound and/or mini ipad ramp(maybe a risk reversal or credit put spread then). different ways to skin this cat but $1000 is too pricey for me based on the thesis. see all of dans on-air trades in this google docs spreadsheet. if you do this trade, after Sep opex, consider selling weekly 700calls against that remaining Oct long call to further reduce your cost.
have you figured out what this picture has to do with AAPL yet?
Saturday, September 8, 2012
$BAC Options Action trade #2 - scott
7sep - on the options action web extra , scott has a trade on BAC, here is the video clip, web extra . a better format would have been to feature this trade on the main show since what scott says directly contradicts mike khouws trade on BAC and use the web extra time for another stock. anyway, scott doing a risk reversal
buy the DEC 8/9 risk reversal (sell the 8 put and buy the 9 call) for a .12 credit
i like risk reversals. as usual my comment is that the information that is left out of this segment is that this is not a free trade, since you are selling a Put, you need to set aside that margin/buying power to actually buy the stock at 8 if it "gets put to you" at Dec opex..so figure $800 per one-lot. alot of traders that do risk reversals / sell cash secured puts always say they would be ok owning the stock at that level if it indeed drops.. thats all well and good if you mean it but most opt out and take a loss vs buying the stock. if the stock starts moving up you profit right away as the call gains and the Put decreases..scott is looking for a significant move he says..if that happens, look to close your short put as a minimum to get out of that margin requirement.. also possibly selling an upside call as well to lock in gains / bring in some added premium. there is going to be resistence at 10ish so i would target selling the 10call when it came to that. see all of scotts on - air trades in this google docs spreadsheet
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buy the DEC 8/9 risk reversal (sell the 8 put and buy the 9 call) for a .12 credit
i like risk reversals. as usual my comment is that the information that is left out of this segment is that this is not a free trade, since you are selling a Put, you need to set aside that margin/buying power to actually buy the stock at 8 if it "gets put to you" at Dec opex..so figure $800 per one-lot. alot of traders that do risk reversals / sell cash secured puts always say they would be ok owning the stock at that level if it indeed drops.. thats all well and good if you mean it but most opt out and take a loss vs buying the stock. if the stock starts moving up you profit right away as the call gains and the Put decreases..scott is looking for a significant move he says..if that happens, look to close your short put as a minimum to get out of that margin requirement.. also possibly selling an upside call as well to lock in gains / bring in some added premium. there is going to be resistence at 10ish so i would target selling the 10call when it came to that. see all of scotts on - air trades in this google docs spreadsheet
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Friday, September 7, 2012
CLOSING the $BAC Options Action trade - mike
20 oct - got a decent rebound this week to make it a nice winner. stock closing out at about 9.44 , so about a .19 gain . percentage wise a good gain but realistically would have to do a large lot size to make serious coin. see all of mikes on-air trades in this google docs spreadsheet
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12 oct - going to have to make a decision right quick if you followed this trade...still worth about what you paid for it...that Oct9 call will be decaying rapidly with the stock at 9.10ish now
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7 sep - mike with a trade on BAC to open the show today, heres the clip BAC clip .
Buy to open the Oct 9/10 call spread for .25
stock breaking out today. as you saw in the video clip, mike is selling the 10calls for a nickel.. if doing this trade i would instead just buy the 9calls and possibly leg into the spread by selling the 10 calls if the stock spikes a bit.. selling a nickel call is hardly worth it. other alternative is to make it a sep/oct 9call calender..the sep 9's are going for .15 still... that .15 cuts your cost basis in half. see all of mikes on-air trades in this google docs spreadsheet
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12 oct - going to have to make a decision right quick if you followed this trade...still worth about what you paid for it...that Oct9 call will be decaying rapidly with the stock at 9.10ish now
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7 sep - mike with a trade on BAC to open the show today, heres the clip BAC clip .
Buy to open the Oct 9/10 call spread for .25
stock breaking out today. as you saw in the video clip, mike is selling the 10calls for a nickel.. if doing this trade i would instead just buy the 9calls and possibly leg into the spread by selling the 10 calls if the stock spikes a bit.. selling a nickel call is hardly worth it. other alternative is to make it a sep/oct 9call calender..the sep 9's are going for .15 still... that .15 cuts your cost basis in half. see all of mikes on-air trades in this google docs spreadsheet
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Sunday, September 2, 2012
CLOSING THE $FB Options Action trade - dan
20 oct - dan pulling the exit trigger early on this one for breakeven, here is a cut and paste from his site for his explanation www.riskreversal.com
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14 sep - options action revisiting this trade. i find in kind of odd to revisit this one since its a NOV dated trade at minimum, not setup for a quick payoff. several other trades out there that could be revisited for those "constant trade updates". note: if there are updates being posted on facebook, i refuse to go there. im not 16years old. here is the clip FB clip.. could have just summarized this segment as "keep holding" .. really going to have to hold to Nov to get that time decay going for you .
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31 aug - dan with a trade on Facebook on the show, heres the clip facebook clip . dan lays out his thesis pretty well, not exactly bullish on the name but likes the setup of the trade:
Buy the Nov/Jan 22 call calender for .45
his reasoning for chosing the Nov option makes sense. its a cheap way for a bullish position of the stock rebounds after the lockup. only thing i will add is that if it works like he wants and Nov option expires worthless and stock price is still in this area...then look to sell a DEC call option to bring it back to another calender spread.. hopefully there is still some premium in those DEC calls then..this will lower your cost basis even more. see all of dans on-air trades in this google docs spreadsheet
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14 sep - options action revisiting this trade. i find in kind of odd to revisit this one since its a NOV dated trade at minimum, not setup for a quick payoff. several other trades out there that could be revisited for those "constant trade updates". note: if there are updates being posted on facebook, i refuse to go there. im not 16years old. here is the clip FB clip.. could have just summarized this segment as "keep holding" .. really going to have to hold to Nov to get that time decay going for you .
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31 aug - dan with a trade on Facebook on the show, heres the clip facebook clip . dan lays out his thesis pretty well, not exactly bullish on the name but likes the setup of the trade:
Buy the Nov/Jan 22 call calender for .45
his reasoning for chosing the Nov option makes sense. its a cheap way for a bullish position of the stock rebounds after the lockup. only thing i will add is that if it works like he wants and Nov option expires worthless and stock price is still in this area...then look to sell a DEC call option to bring it back to another calender spread.. hopefully there is still some premium in those DEC calls then..this will lower your cost basis even more. see all of dans on-air trades in this google docs spreadsheet
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Saturday, September 1, 2012
update to $BA Options Action trade - mike
26oct - with 3 weeks to go, this option is going for about 15cents, so near 90% loss if you followed into this trade and also stuck with it per the 7 sep show.. the stock is right about where it was when trade was put on.. been couple days since earnings where it popped. didnt see an update if he did anything , ie close it or spread it out.
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7sep - on the show tonight , they revisit a one week old trade on Boeing, complete with the usual photoshopped pictures, happy music and big smiles.. heres the clip updated clip . mike sticking with the trade which is expected. my suggested alternative of making it a sep/nov 75 calender would be working also.
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31aug - mike khouw and carter worth with a trade on Boeing on show today, heres the clip Boeing clip ... this sure does seem familiar..its deja vu all over again.. i remember now.. he had a near identical trade on a fast money hit in may, heres that first trade and clip first Boeing trade. that option expired at max loss BTW.
Buy Nov 75 call for $1.25
i dont see it on the chart as to why to buy BA here..maybe if it breaks the 50/200 day moving average...if anything it looks like a good candidate for iron condors...been range bound since Jan. , anyway..as usual my alternatives to just buying a call months out are to make it a calender spread or a series of calender spreads.. the Sep 75 is still going for 20cents, the Oct 75 is going for about 70cents... that way you reduce that premium outlay...like shown in the graphics..at opex the stock needs to be at 76.25 to breakeven and as you can see in the chart there is significant 9month resistence at 75..another reason i would not do this trade. need almost a 10% move to be profitable at opex and have to break serious resistence to do it. no thanks. see all of mikes on-air trades in this google docs spreadsheet
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7sep - on the show tonight , they revisit a one week old trade on Boeing, complete with the usual photoshopped pictures, happy music and big smiles.. heres the clip updated clip . mike sticking with the trade which is expected. my suggested alternative of making it a sep/nov 75 calender would be working also.
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31aug - mike khouw and carter worth with a trade on Boeing on show today, heres the clip Boeing clip ... this sure does seem familiar..its deja vu all over again.. i remember now.. he had a near identical trade on a fast money hit in may, heres that first trade and clip first Boeing trade. that option expired at max loss BTW.
Buy Nov 75 call for $1.25
i dont see it on the chart as to why to buy BA here..maybe if it breaks the 50/200 day moving average...if anything it looks like a good candidate for iron condors...been range bound since Jan. , anyway..as usual my alternatives to just buying a call months out are to make it a calender spread or a series of calender spreads.. the Sep 75 is still going for 20cents, the Oct 75 is going for about 70cents... that way you reduce that premium outlay...like shown in the graphics..at opex the stock needs to be at 76.25 to breakeven and as you can see in the chart there is significant 9month resistence at 75..another reason i would not do this trade. need almost a 10% move to be profitable at opex and have to break serious resistence to do it. no thanks. see all of mikes on-air trades in this google docs spreadsheet
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Friday, August 31, 2012
$DLTR Options Action trade - scott
31 aug - in todays web extra , scott answers viewer email and has a trade for DLTR, here is the video clip options action web extra
Buy the Jan2013 50/57.50 call spread for $2.00
ok, thats one way to put on a bullish position. but my usual comments that when i see a position that far out is to make it a series of calender spreads or diagonal spreads. since he is selling the 57.50 call for only .60 cents, selling a series of shorter dated calls might bring in more premium and reduce the cost basis of the long call.. such as buying the jan2013 50 call and instead selling the OCT 52.50 call against it for about .40 cents.. this "position" will still be profitable even if stock moves up past 52.50.. use your brokers platform to play with profit/loss levels based on where stock closes on Opex in Oct.... then when Oct opex expires, sell another upside call for Nov, same for Dec.. perfect situation would be for stock to grind its way up each month , you keep that front month premium each month.
other option is since you are bullish and have 4months to opex, just buy that 50call and when stock starts moving up, maybe to the 50day moving average, then "leg into" the spread...then sell that upside call in Jan2013. but given these two alternatives, i would do the series of calender spreads. see all of scotts on-air trades in this google docs spreadsheet
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Buy the Jan2013 50/57.50 call spread for $2.00
ok, thats one way to put on a bullish position. but my usual comments that when i see a position that far out is to make it a series of calender spreads or diagonal spreads. since he is selling the 57.50 call for only .60 cents, selling a series of shorter dated calls might bring in more premium and reduce the cost basis of the long call.. such as buying the jan2013 50 call and instead selling the OCT 52.50 call against it for about .40 cents.. this "position" will still be profitable even if stock moves up past 52.50.. use your brokers platform to play with profit/loss levels based on where stock closes on Opex in Oct.... then when Oct opex expires, sell another upside call for Nov, same for Dec.. perfect situation would be for stock to grind its way up each month , you keep that front month premium each month.
other option is since you are bullish and have 4months to opex, just buy that 50call and when stock starts moving up, maybe to the 50day moving average, then "leg into" the spread...then sell that upside call in Jan2013. but given these two alternatives, i would do the series of calender spreads. see all of scotts on-air trades in this google docs spreadsheet
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Sunday, August 26, 2012
CLOSING the $XLK Options Action trade - dan $aapl
21 sep - no dice again on a "short" AAPL play...dan had aaples number last year, really been off this year. low premium trade will go out at full loss
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24 aug - as mentioned previously, dan has a trade on this weeks options action on XLK , here is the video clip XLK clip . essentially a go short AAPL play but without shorting AAPL.
Buy the Sep 30/29 put spread for .20
dan lays out the thesis pretty well in the video clip. obviously dont need that big move to make a profit..just a small selloff and this spread is near a double. dan usually takes off half of the position when it doubles. cheap premium, defines the risk.. i did a few of these as well. see all of dans on-air trades in this google docs spreadsheet
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24 aug - as mentioned previously, dan has a trade on this weeks options action on XLK , here is the video clip XLK clip . essentially a go short AAPL play but without shorting AAPL.
Buy the Sep 30/29 put spread for .20
dan lays out the thesis pretty well in the video clip. obviously dont need that big move to make a profit..just a small selloff and this spread is near a double. dan usually takes off half of the position when it doubles. cheap premium, defines the risk.. i did a few of these as well. see all of dans on-air trades in this google docs spreadsheet
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Saturday, August 25, 2012
CLOSING the $LVS Options Action trade - Mike
5 oct - Options action revisiting this trade. que the graphics, big smiles, and music. now que up the misleading and inaccurate statements..what do they think this is .. the Obama campaign?? heres the video clip LVS clip . "i need more cash" is the weak catch phrase for this segment. "let's find a way to get even more money out of it. last week khouw and carter found a way" melissa lee says. must be some fancy options adjustment strategy coming up. never let the facts get in the way of some good tv.. some very generous prices are thrown out there with melissa saying the options could be sold today for 2.30.. very generous, lets see the high/low for that option per ameritrade was 1.82/2.40 with a closing bid/ask of 1.92/1.95..so we will just slip in a price at near the high of the day and run with it for the show, makes the averages look better. remember i said previously that just because a trade is featured on air it doesnt mean they have skin in the game. carter recommends take profits and mike is "inclined to agree" and makes some logical reasoning and will "take the money and run" .. not exactly a resounding statement to make me think it was more than a paper trade..something more to my liking would have been "i took profits today", or "we closed it out".. so where was that "i need more cash" portion of this segment...you know the khouw and carter found a way to make more cash lead-in. overpromise underdeliver.. since there was no tweet about this trade being closed out i will credit him a closing price on the trade at 1.95. Still a winner, but im skeptical. see all of mikes on air trades in this google docs spreadsheet
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5 oct - have to make a decision soon if you followed into this trade.. its up about 60 cents so far with stock at 45.70ish with 2weeks to go before opex. so if looking to "spread it out" , you need to do so quickly before that time decay takes all the premium out of it.
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24 aug - mike has a trade on options action this week on LVS, here is the video clip LVS clip . i dont like this space first off so i would not be following this trade.
Buy the Oct 44 call for $1.65
as usual , carter worth brings a multiyear chart to the show.. i disagree with it as usual. in general the further back in time you go the less relevant levels become.. this level that carter points out didnt mean much on way up to 62.. didnt mean much on way down to 35.. so i consider that level irrelevant because of whats happened since 2011..if it had not gone to 60 and just hit 50 again and sold off then maybe it makes sense.. im guessing that all those 50 level buyers from 2011 are long gone either took profits near 60 or stopped out since then.. regardless.. mike doing a straight up call purchase. mike makes it clear that he will "spread it out" by selling an upside call if the stock moves up . dont look for Options Action to tell you that though. mike has not had a good track record doing just straight up call purchases if you held all the way to opex, see all of mikes on-air trades in this google docs spreadsheet
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5 oct - have to make a decision soon if you followed into this trade.. its up about 60 cents so far with stock at 45.70ish with 2weeks to go before opex. so if looking to "spread it out" , you need to do so quickly before that time decay takes all the premium out of it.
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24 aug - mike has a trade on options action this week on LVS, here is the video clip LVS clip . i dont like this space first off so i would not be following this trade.
Buy the Oct 44 call for $1.65
as usual , carter worth brings a multiyear chart to the show.. i disagree with it as usual. in general the further back in time you go the less relevant levels become.. this level that carter points out didnt mean much on way up to 62.. didnt mean much on way down to 35.. so i consider that level irrelevant because of whats happened since 2011..if it had not gone to 60 and just hit 50 again and sold off then maybe it makes sense.. im guessing that all those 50 level buyers from 2011 are long gone either took profits near 60 or stopped out since then.. regardless.. mike doing a straight up call purchase. mike makes it clear that he will "spread it out" by selling an upside call if the stock moves up . dont look for Options Action to tell you that though. mike has not had a good track record doing just straight up call purchases if you held all the way to opex, see all of mikes on-air trades in this google docs spreadsheet
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Friday, August 24, 2012
$AAPL OptionsAction web extra trade
part 2 of the web extra has scott recommending a new trade on AAPL, here the video clip AAPL clip
Buy the DEC 675/725 call spread for $18.50
pretty straight forward trade. as usual when i see a trade that far into the future i would rather to a diagonal spread.. buy that Dec675 and instead sell either upside weekly or monthly short calls.. the SEP 700 is going for $6.00 ish now. its a little more of an up front cost but you maximize the time decay of the short call by selling weekly or monthly options vs that DEC 725. see all of scotts on-air trades in this google docs spreadsheet
click-->Follow @Mark_Lexus to follow on twitter... BTW, she has nothing to do with Aaple
Buy the DEC 675/725 call spread for $18.50
pretty straight forward trade. as usual when i see a trade that far into the future i would rather to a diagonal spread.. buy that Dec675 and instead sell either upside weekly or monthly short calls.. the SEP 700 is going for $6.00 ish now. its a little more of an up front cost but you maximize the time decay of the short call by selling weekly or monthly options vs that DEC 725. see all of scotts on-air trades in this google docs spreadsheet
click-->Follow @Mark_Lexus to follow on twitter... BTW, she has nothing to do with Aaple
Monday, August 20, 2012
UPDATE $TIF Options Action trade - mike
26 oct - been 2 months and no updates on-air.. stock is near 62ish.. and this ratio spread is worth about 60 cents.. so about 50% loss with 3 weeks to go.. since you are short an extra Put and its going for about 6 cents.. you might want to buy at least that extra put back in order to get back that margin/buying power you had to set aside. have not seen updates on-air but if you followed into this trade you have to make decision if you think it still has a downside potential or take it off and salvage the remaining premium for another trade.. if downside expectation then maybe close both those short calls and look to "releg" into a put spread if that down move happens.
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31 aug - just been 2 weeks and options action is revisiting this trade., here is the video clip from today, TIF revisit .. the summary seemed to take forever.. first off, see thats why i dont like doing longer dated ratio spreads..you have to wait to near opex to get that profit when the time decay kicks in on those two short puts. additionally, even if stock moves against you a bit you dont see much of a loss either.. carter worth is right, not much has happened, stock is up only 2bucks since this trade was on air..if you are going to go out 3 months on a ratio 2bucks and 2weeks dont matter too much.
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8-17 Mike with a rare 1x2 put spread on options action this week..heres the video clip TIF clip
Buy the Nov 60/52.5 1x2 put spread for $1.20 (but one 60, sell two 52.5's)
i like these trades but rarely do them. as usual i dont like the timeframe, would rather look to do something closer. glanced over quickly is that since you will be short that extra Put, you will have to set aside margin/buying power in case you get "put the stock"..your brokers margin requirements will vary but figure $5250 in margin to buy the stock at $52.50 in nov at opex if you take no action. essentially gives himself a wide profit zone from about 60-45 with max profit being a pin at 52.50 in NOV...scott makes an interesting point that if stock drops a ways you might want to buy it at that level anyway, ie that short put...if you have that attitude that you would be ok buying the stock at 52ish (effective price of 46ish really) then this is an excellant trade..just like selling a naked put.. but if it ACTUALLY drops that low, most traders quickly forget that part and take a loss. all in all i like the trade but i dont follow the stock. only lose money if it drops below 46ish at opex.. thats the other thing, you will not see profits till near the NOV opex since those two shorts are increasing in value as well so you have to be prepared to hold it almost all the way to see your profits..its not a quick trade. see all of mikes on-air trades in this google docs spreadsheet
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31 aug - just been 2 weeks and options action is revisiting this trade., here is the video clip from today, TIF revisit .. the summary seemed to take forever.. first off, see thats why i dont like doing longer dated ratio spreads..you have to wait to near opex to get that profit when the time decay kicks in on those two short puts. additionally, even if stock moves against you a bit you dont see much of a loss either.. carter worth is right, not much has happened, stock is up only 2bucks since this trade was on air..if you are going to go out 3 months on a ratio 2bucks and 2weeks dont matter too much.
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8-17 Mike with a rare 1x2 put spread on options action this week..heres the video clip TIF clip
Buy the Nov 60/52.5 1x2 put spread for $1.20 (but one 60, sell two 52.5's)
i like these trades but rarely do them. as usual i dont like the timeframe, would rather look to do something closer. glanced over quickly is that since you will be short that extra Put, you will have to set aside margin/buying power in case you get "put the stock"..your brokers margin requirements will vary but figure $5250 in margin to buy the stock at $52.50 in nov at opex if you take no action. essentially gives himself a wide profit zone from about 60-45 with max profit being a pin at 52.50 in NOV...scott makes an interesting point that if stock drops a ways you might want to buy it at that level anyway, ie that short put...if you have that attitude that you would be ok buying the stock at 52ish (effective price of 46ish really) then this is an excellant trade..just like selling a naked put.. but if it ACTUALLY drops that low, most traders quickly forget that part and take a loss. all in all i like the trade but i dont follow the stock. only lose money if it drops below 46ish at opex.. thats the other thing, you will not see profits till near the NOV opex since those two shorts are increasing in value as well so you have to be prepared to hold it almost all the way to see your profits..its not a quick trade. see all of mikes on-air trades in this google docs spreadsheet
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