17aug - going to be a no cost no foul trade, with INTC near 26.25... so for 3 months stock is up 30cents and you got nothing out of the collar unless you traded around it somehow..like closing the call on down moves, maybe reselling it on up moves type of trades
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31 may - mike has a no cost collar on tap for INTC tonight, here is the video clip for the segment. with stock at 25.84 he is suggesting the
Buy the Aug 23/28 collar for no cost.. sell the 28call, buy the 23 put for zero
as usual i disagree with mikes timeframe. but first as you can see by the graphic they put up at about the 50second mark that because he is buying a 23 put you have losses from current price all the way down to 23.. so you take a 10% loss BEFORE that Put kicks in to protect you if you hold to opex. if you are locked into using the Aug timeframe i would make this a put spread collar.. buy a 25/23 put spread and sell the 28call.. probably for about 5cent debit.. that way you dont have to have a $2.50 drop in price first to get protection.. your protection starts after just an 84cent drop.. i would tradeoff the "unlimited" type gains a 23put might give me to get the immediate protection.. having to have some loss is ok sometimes but having to eat a 10% loss does not qualify as protection.. like having a 10% deductable on your car insurance. also looking at chart the 23 level where that Put would kick in looks to be a support level from december, might be hard to drop thru that.
second, i disagree with the timeframe.. why go to august, why lock up your position for 3 months..why not try this in July(not knowing when earnings are)... id do that first.. if it works out , even if it doesnt you can still do a collar in august..for july id go with the sell 27call, buy 25/23 put spread...close to breakeven again... can do this every month if needed if your thesis is bearish going forward.
mikes on-air trades in google docs spreadsheet
A summary and suggestions for improvement of some of the trades as seen on CNBC Options Action
Thursday, May 31, 2012
Wednesday, May 30, 2012
CLOSING $CF OptionsAction trade - mike
17aug - with stock at 216 today this trade will be a "win".. with your stock getting called away at an effective price of $194 if you are still holding this trade and are not going to take some action. still would rather do a series of front month calls vs going out 3months when selling calls.
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30 may - mike has a covered call trade on CF on show tonight, here is the video clip . i like the concept of a covered call as much as the next guy but as usual i dont care for mikes timeframe..
Sell the Aug185 call for $9 ($900) per contract
Going out 3months on short calls is not my thing, essentially locking up your position for that time.. not getting much time decay right now because its that far out. Also earnings look to be in early Aug so that call will remain elevated right up to earnings.. negating the time decay till then.. if you had your heart set on that 185 strike level, i would first sell the July 185 for about $6 ($600).. so going out 30more days would only net you another $300 in premium... after July opex i would revaluate where the stock is and my thesis going forward with earnings.. if stock is below 185, then i keep the full $600, and can resell an Aug short call taking advantage of the high premiums because of earnings that month.. bottom line i dont see the advantage of going that far out... using that logic, why not go out to Nov opex and sell 185strike for $15ish... plenty of trades you can make between now and Aug opex... as in short calls, ratio spreads to position for upside, collars..etc.. no need to lock up the position for 3months unless that 5% is what your after.
mikes on-air trades in a google docs spreadsheet
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30 may - mike has a covered call trade on CF on show tonight, here is the video clip . i like the concept of a covered call as much as the next guy but as usual i dont care for mikes timeframe..
Sell the Aug185 call for $9 ($900) per contract
Going out 3months on short calls is not my thing, essentially locking up your position for that time.. not getting much time decay right now because its that far out. Also earnings look to be in early Aug so that call will remain elevated right up to earnings.. negating the time decay till then.. if you had your heart set on that 185 strike level, i would first sell the July 185 for about $6 ($600).. so going out 30more days would only net you another $300 in premium... after July opex i would revaluate where the stock is and my thesis going forward with earnings.. if stock is below 185, then i keep the full $600, and can resell an Aug short call taking advantage of the high premiums because of earnings that month.. bottom line i dont see the advantage of going that far out... using that logic, why not go out to Nov opex and sell 185strike for $15ish... plenty of trades you can make between now and Aug opex... as in short calls, ratio spreads to position for upside, collars..etc.. no need to lock up the position for 3months unless that 5% is what your after.
mikes on-air trades in a google docs spreadsheet
Tuesday, May 29, 2012
CLOSING the $JPM OptionsAction trade repair - mike
21sep - the beauty of ratio spreads..almost a perfect pin..the .90 ratio can be closed for about 5.00 when i looked at it this afternoon and the stock is at 41ish... so big profit on the ratio plus the gain on your stock/Leaps you had underlying. would still prefer to do a series of monthly ratios vs going out so far..but trade worked out nicely..you need to close it out or else your long stock will get called away. see all of mikes on-air trades in this google docs spreadsheet
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2sep - youre not going to see this updated on Options Action since it was from the Optionsaction hit on Fast money but if you followed it and are still holding you have a decent profit as most ratio spreads tend to have..stock has recovered to about 37ish with 3 weeks till opex..the 40calls are going for about 10cents each now..i would keep holding those and let them expire worthless. like i said below, a series of monthly ratio spreads might have been better vs just one ratio spread going out 4months..pretty much locked into the position for 4months that way.
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29 may - not exactly a new trade, but more a possible way to repair a long stock trade youve had on previously... thought for a moment they might revisit Mike's own JPM trade featured on-air just a week ago MIkes other JPM trade , but then again they set it and forget it for mikes trades. so thesis is you are long the stock and have a paper loss. mike recommends a ratio spread
Buy the Sep 34/40 ratio spread (buy one 34, sell two 40's) for a debit of .90 ($90 per every 100shares you own)
i like the concept, those that follow me know ratio spreads are one of my favorites. but the issue i have is twofold.. karen hits on it at the tail end of the segment, mike really doesnt answer her question, tonights clip..tonights clip . I call ratio spreads "free trades" many times, ie you can put it on for free.. so that is my first beef, that since he is going way out to sept there is no reason like karen was hitting on that you can not do this trade for free instead of paying another .90... such as the Sep 35/38 ratio can be put on for about a nickel. this ratio then has a profit range of 35-41. secondly i dont like his timeframe as usual..going way out to sep for a spread, i would try shorter term ratio spreads first. you then have the ability to do that 2-3 times till sep. , possibly making a profit each time. first one i would look at is the July 34/36 ratio for zero.. profit range is 34-38 on just this ratio spread.. say it gets to 38, then the ratio is worth zero but your stock is up 5points from today..so your "position" is profitable..maybe enough to swing your position to profit or breakeven. you max profit on the ratio is at a 36pin on july opex with a 2point gain plus the 2points from the stock move up. then you might be able to do another ratio for Aug using the current strikes. if stock moves above 38..then you can close ratio and sell short call for the next month for credit.. not a bad problem to have
with mikes, you have to wait all the way to Sep opex to realize any gain.. if stock jumps to 40 tomorrow that ratio will usually be a paper loss since the 40's increase in value as well.. more so than the 34call is gaining. so with this spread you are pretty much locked into the trade till then. bottom line i like ratios but would stick with short term ones instead of 3-4 months out..can take advantage of near term movment that way.
mikes on air trade in google docs spreadsheet -->> mikes trades
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2sep - youre not going to see this updated on Options Action since it was from the Optionsaction hit on Fast money but if you followed it and are still holding you have a decent profit as most ratio spreads tend to have..stock has recovered to about 37ish with 3 weeks till opex..the 40calls are going for about 10cents each now..i would keep holding those and let them expire worthless. like i said below, a series of monthly ratio spreads might have been better vs just one ratio spread going out 4months..pretty much locked into the position for 4months that way.
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29 may - not exactly a new trade, but more a possible way to repair a long stock trade youve had on previously... thought for a moment they might revisit Mike's own JPM trade featured on-air just a week ago MIkes other JPM trade , but then again they set it and forget it for mikes trades. so thesis is you are long the stock and have a paper loss. mike recommends a ratio spread
Buy the Sep 34/40 ratio spread (buy one 34, sell two 40's) for a debit of .90 ($90 per every 100shares you own)
i like the concept, those that follow me know ratio spreads are one of my favorites. but the issue i have is twofold.. karen hits on it at the tail end of the segment, mike really doesnt answer her question, tonights clip..tonights clip . I call ratio spreads "free trades" many times, ie you can put it on for free.. so that is my first beef, that since he is going way out to sept there is no reason like karen was hitting on that you can not do this trade for free instead of paying another .90... such as the Sep 35/38 ratio can be put on for about a nickel. this ratio then has a profit range of 35-41. secondly i dont like his timeframe as usual..going way out to sep for a spread, i would try shorter term ratio spreads first. you then have the ability to do that 2-3 times till sep. , possibly making a profit each time. first one i would look at is the July 34/36 ratio for zero.. profit range is 34-38 on just this ratio spread.. say it gets to 38, then the ratio is worth zero but your stock is up 5points from today..so your "position" is profitable..maybe enough to swing your position to profit or breakeven. you max profit on the ratio is at a 36pin on july opex with a 2point gain plus the 2points from the stock move up. then you might be able to do another ratio for Aug using the current strikes. if stock moves above 38..then you can close ratio and sell short call for the next month for credit.. not a bad problem to have
with mikes, you have to wait all the way to Sep opex to realize any gain.. if stock jumps to 40 tomorrow that ratio will usually be a paper loss since the 40's increase in value as well.. more so than the 34call is gaining. so with this spread you are pretty much locked into the trade till then. bottom line i like ratios but would stick with short term ones instead of 3-4 months out..can take advantage of near term movment that way.
mikes on air trade in google docs spreadsheet -->> mikes trades
CLOSING the $IBM OptionsAction trade - mike
20july with stock at 193ish today this trade is going to be a total loss if you still are holding..stock had a comback but not enough
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28jun - if you followed mike khouw into this one from last month and are still holding, you are near a 90%loss right now. rough month for mike so far
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25 may - mike has a simple buy call strategy on IBM on the show this week, here is the video clip IBM clip
Buy the July 205 call for $2.15
pretty simple trade here, buying a call for a bullish thesis. no alternative from me, but likely if stock moves up sell a portion of trade to get the cost back or look to sell the 210 calls to "spread it out" to lock in a gain.
google docs spreadsheet for mikes on-air trades mikes trades
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28jun - if you followed mike khouw into this one from last month and are still holding, you are near a 90%loss right now. rough month for mike so far
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25 may - mike has a simple buy call strategy on IBM on the show this week, here is the video clip IBM clip
Buy the July 205 call for $2.15
pretty simple trade here, buying a call for a bullish thesis. no alternative from me, but likely if stock moves up sell a portion of trade to get the cost back or look to sell the 210 calls to "spread it out" to lock in a gain.
google docs spreadsheet for mikes on-air trades mikes trades
CLOSING THE $CHK Options Action trade - Enis
20 July - Enis throws up a brick for his first trade from May with stock near 17 today, will be a max loss.
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28 Jun - if you took this trade from Enis last month you are sitting on 80%+ paper loss with 3weeks to go. unless something drastic happens its not looking good to turn profitable
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25 may - Enis has a bearish trade on CHK via a put spread. trade has a 3 to 1 payout at max profit. here is the video clip CHK clip
Buy the July 14/12 put spread for .50 ($50) per lot
could get this trade a bit cheaper on todays up move in a.m. , good trade if you have a bearish thesis, defined risk of .50 , would not take the trade myself, just too many conflicting issues with this name..CEO activities vs Icahn stirring things up. Google Docs spreadsheet of Enis's on-air trades: Enis spreadsheet
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28 Jun - if you took this trade from Enis last month you are sitting on 80%+ paper loss with 3weeks to go. unless something drastic happens its not looking good to turn profitable
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25 may - Enis has a bearish trade on CHK via a put spread. trade has a 3 to 1 payout at max profit. here is the video clip CHK clip
Buy the July 14/12 put spread for .50 ($50) per lot
could get this trade a bit cheaper on todays up move in a.m. , good trade if you have a bearish thesis, defined risk of .50 , would not take the trade myself, just too many conflicting issues with this name..CEO activities vs Icahn stirring things up. Google Docs spreadsheet of Enis's on-air trades: Enis spreadsheet
Saturday, May 26, 2012
CLOSING $CAT OptionsAction "Extra Offering" trade - Enis
17 aug - stock pinned to 90 today so the other half of the put spread will expire worthless.. good trade managment by taking some profits along the way, getting his cost back so it will be a no loss trade..bad part is he let the remainder of his position erode away and not get anything for it...so essentially a breakeven trade.
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16july - Enis talking profits on half this position per the risk reversal website, risk reversal .. so got his money back..will be a no loss trade going forward
Selling half the aug85/75 put spread at $4.60
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25may - this might be a new segment similar to the Web Extra with Jackie Deangelis having the duty this time with Enis from Risk Reversal, here is the video clip for todays segment with Enis having a Put Spread on Caterpillar Extra Offering clip . Guess they need to do something since Scott never contributes a trade on the show. google docs spreadsheet for Enis' on-air trades-->> spreadsheet
Buy the Aug 85/75 Put Spread for $2.35 ($235 per lot)
Enis has a bearish thesis and also said you can use this if you are long as a hedge. CAT testing support level from late 2011, if it breaks that level this trade will work well.. Dan at Risk Reversal usually will take profits on half the position to get the cost back and let the rest run, so Enis will likely do the same thing. CAT seems to be a proxy to China growth, so moves up and down based on what the flavor of the day is on china, slowing or not slowing. August opex gives you plenty of time to be right. Risk less to make more.
follow me on twitter @mark_lexus for more free charts/ trades/ and setup
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16july - Enis talking profits on half this position per the risk reversal website, risk reversal .. so got his money back..will be a no loss trade going forward
Selling half the aug85/75 put spread at $4.60
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25may - this might be a new segment similar to the Web Extra with Jackie Deangelis having the duty this time with Enis from Risk Reversal, here is the video clip for todays segment with Enis having a Put Spread on Caterpillar Extra Offering clip . Guess they need to do something since Scott never contributes a trade on the show. google docs spreadsheet for Enis' on-air trades-->> spreadsheet
Buy the Aug 85/75 Put Spread for $2.35 ($235 per lot)
Enis has a bearish thesis and also said you can use this if you are long as a hedge. CAT testing support level from late 2011, if it breaks that level this trade will work well.. Dan at Risk Reversal usually will take profits on half the position to get the cost back and let the rest run, so Enis will likely do the same thing. CAT seems to be a proxy to China growth, so moves up and down based on what the flavor of the day is on china, slowing or not slowing. August opex gives you plenty of time to be right. Risk less to make more.
follow me on twitter @mark_lexus for more free charts/ trades/ and setup
Friday, May 25, 2012
CLOSING $BA OptionsAction Trade - mike
17 aug - as you can see, just because you go out a few months on your option purchase, it does not mean it will be profitable at opex..it might have been profitable at some point along the way but dont expect cnbc or mike khouw to give updates unless they can work it into a cool segment with graphics and music. losing trades at opex are not good for ratings... so this call purchase will go out at max loss also
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27july - 2months since this on-air trade and this call is trading at about 1.35 today with stock just above 75 when i looked at it. so down about 20% if you followed mike into the trade and held. Constant Trade Updates they say
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24 may - on show tonight mike talks buying a call in Boeing , here is the video clip boeing clip
Buy the Aug 75 call for $1.75
sure it only costs 1.75 , a 10lot at $1750.. not exactly risk less to make more, would go with either a call spread or a call calender, as in sell the july 75 call with it to lower the cost of this trade. would not go long this name. mike doesnt have a glowing description of Boeing on his lead in to warrant recommending buying a call, wonder why he would recommend that with those comments.
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27july - 2months since this on-air trade and this call is trading at about 1.35 today with stock just above 75 when i looked at it. so down about 20% if you followed mike into the trade and held. Constant Trade Updates they say
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24 may - on show tonight mike talks buying a call in Boeing , here is the video clip boeing clip
Buy the Aug 75 call for $1.75
sure it only costs 1.75 , a 10lot at $1750.. not exactly risk less to make more, would go with either a call spread or a call calender, as in sell the july 75 call with it to lower the cost of this trade. would not go long this name. mike doesnt have a glowing description of Boeing on his lead in to warrant recommending buying a call, wonder why he would recommend that with those comments.
Wednesday, May 23, 2012
CLOSING $DHI OptionsAction Trade - mike
17aug - 3 months since this trade was on-air, with stock at 19ish the covered call is in the money and with no action by you ,the shares will be called away if stock stays as is at opex and you will have locked in a gain.. hopefully if you followed this trade you bought back the short calls when stock dipped into 14dollar range, since the strike month was that far out you would have had a good chance of reselling the short calls again on any rebound.
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23 may - on fast money tonight mike has a trade on DR Horton, a covered call, here is the video video clip
Sell the Aug 17 call for $1.50
odd selection again, looking at the chart. with stock at 16.85 today, the stock was near 18 just last week.. his trade caps the upside for next 90days at 18.50..sure its 10% like he said. but he is also commenting on how high premiums are. to me that means i want to sell premium but also to get paid on that premium as quick as possible, ie fastest time decay. mike is notornious for always going out a couple months on his trades. i dont like selling short calls that far out..too much movement in the market lately to be that sure, would rather go front month to get the faster time decay. if you are locked in to that 17strike level then the June 17 call is still at .70, would look to sell that one first, if stock below 17 at opex, keep all that premium, then sell a July covered call, then an Aug covered call.. the july is going to decay faster obviously than Mikes aug short call. Historically what i have done wrong with covered calls is sell them too close to ATM, like mikes strike..stock keeps going up and you kick yourself for not accepting smaller premium in exchange for a bit more stock upside.
google docs spreadsheet for mikes on-air trades -->>spreadsheet
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23 may - on fast money tonight mike has a trade on DR Horton, a covered call, here is the video video clip
Sell the Aug 17 call for $1.50
odd selection again, looking at the chart. with stock at 16.85 today, the stock was near 18 just last week.. his trade caps the upside for next 90days at 18.50..sure its 10% like he said. but he is also commenting on how high premiums are. to me that means i want to sell premium but also to get paid on that premium as quick as possible, ie fastest time decay. mike is notornious for always going out a couple months on his trades. i dont like selling short calls that far out..too much movement in the market lately to be that sure, would rather go front month to get the faster time decay. if you are locked in to that 17strike level then the June 17 call is still at .70, would look to sell that one first, if stock below 17 at opex, keep all that premium, then sell a July covered call, then an Aug covered call.. the july is going to decay faster obviously than Mikes aug short call. Historically what i have done wrong with covered calls is sell them too close to ATM, like mikes strike..stock keeps going up and you kick yourself for not accepting smaller premium in exchange for a bit more stock upside.
google docs spreadsheet for mikes on-air trades -->>spreadsheet
Tuesday, May 22, 2012
CLOSING the $JPM Options Action trade - mike
20 july - with no updates from options action and mike via twitter as usual , this trade will be another max loss with the stock trading at 34ish at noon. risk less to make more
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28jun - if your still holding this trade from mike khouw you are on a 20% loss right now. keep those fingers crossed hoping for OptionsAction to give you an update on what to do.
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22may - on tonights fast money, mike has a trade on JP Morgan, here is the video clip -->> video clip
Buy the July 35 calls for $1.65
Listening to his commentary about how the option prices are elevated makes me think that every other time those comments are thrown out there they argue that to mitigate that you should buy a call spread. surprised he is not doing that here. saying that you are mitigating your downside if stock rolls over again by buying this call is just another way of saying that all you can lose is $1.65...yeah, no shit captain obvious.. its also called a total loss. you could use a higher strike and pay less and risk less too if you follow that logic. Not exactly risk less to make more. of course the stock could go up a $1-2 tomorrow and the trade will be good winner but paying out $1.65 to me..$1650 on a 10lot is a good chunk of change, would look for a lower cost way to enter a long thesis, first off would look at call spread, then price out call butterfly and compare to call calender.. risk less to make more. Positive part of mikes trade is he goes to the July opex to give himself some added time to let this trade workout.
google docs spreadsheet of mikes OptionsAction trades -->> spreadsheet
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28jun - if your still holding this trade from mike khouw you are on a 20% loss right now. keep those fingers crossed hoping for OptionsAction to give you an update on what to do.
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22may - on tonights fast money, mike has a trade on JP Morgan, here is the video clip -->> video clip
Buy the July 35 calls for $1.65
Listening to his commentary about how the option prices are elevated makes me think that every other time those comments are thrown out there they argue that to mitigate that you should buy a call spread. surprised he is not doing that here. saying that you are mitigating your downside if stock rolls over again by buying this call is just another way of saying that all you can lose is $1.65...yeah, no shit captain obvious.. its also called a total loss. you could use a higher strike and pay less and risk less too if you follow that logic. Not exactly risk less to make more. of course the stock could go up a $1-2 tomorrow and the trade will be good winner but paying out $1.65 to me..$1650 on a 10lot is a good chunk of change, would look for a lower cost way to enter a long thesis, first off would look at call spread, then price out call butterfly and compare to call calender.. risk less to make more. Positive part of mikes trade is he goes to the July opex to give himself some added time to let this trade workout.
google docs spreadsheet of mikes OptionsAction trades -->> spreadsheet
Monday, May 21, 2012
CLOSING THE $YHOO OptionsAction trade #2 - scott
20 oct - just like i always say, keep selling those front month short calls and bring down that cost basis.. might have happened on this trade after the july call expired but we will never know since the trade was not updated on-air or twitter.. so into the books goes another full loss with stock closing under 16 at opex.
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11oct - been a long time since this trade was on air, if you took no action and are still holding the Oct call.. its going for about .15 with a week to go till opex with stock near 15.90. so about 80% paper loss. you could have sold front month calls along the way and reduced your cost basis some.
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21 May - scott has another trade for YHOO. had a YHOO trade on 4/9 as well. here is the video clip yhoo trade
Buy the July/Oct 16 call calender (sell the July16/Buy the Oct16) for .65
The alternative i would do to this is to start this as a JUNE/Oct call calender.. after hours quotes still show .35 left in the June16 call. selling the June call first you further reduce the cost of this calender, if it closes below 16 at June opex, then sell the July 16 call, then the aug,sep, not saying scotts trade will not work but i would want to get that front month premium in my pocket first to take advantage of the faster time decay.
google docs spreadsheet of scotts trades: scotts trades
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11oct - been a long time since this trade was on air, if you took no action and are still holding the Oct call.. its going for about .15 with a week to go till opex with stock near 15.90. so about 80% paper loss. you could have sold front month calls along the way and reduced your cost basis some.
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21 May - scott has another trade for YHOO. had a YHOO trade on 4/9 as well. here is the video clip yhoo trade
Buy the July/Oct 16 call calender (sell the July16/Buy the Oct16) for .65
The alternative i would do to this is to start this as a JUNE/Oct call calender.. after hours quotes still show .35 left in the June16 call. selling the June call first you further reduce the cost of this calender, if it closes below 16 at June opex, then sell the July 16 call, then the aug,sep, not saying scotts trade will not work but i would want to get that front month premium in my pocket first to take advantage of the faster time decay.
google docs spreadsheet of scotts trades: scotts trades
CLOSING the $WFC OptionsAction trade - mike
20 july - with stock near 33.90 at noon im closing this one out as breakeven..no harm no foul.. will likely not have surfboarding goats with catchy music on the show tonight talking about this one either
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28jun - a month later , how are those "constant trade updates" from @cnbcoptions working out.. if you followed mike khouw into this trade you are at about 60% paper loss. still 3weeks to go to pull out a win.
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18may - on this weeks show, mike has a trade on WFC, here is the video clip video clip
Buy the July 33 call for .95
scott and dan do a good enough job of shooting the trade down. if anything i would do a call spread instead of an outright call purchase.
google docs spreadsheet for mikes trades: mikes trades
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28jun - a month later , how are those "constant trade updates" from @cnbcoptions working out.. if you followed mike khouw into this trade you are at about 60% paper loss. still 3weeks to go to pull out a win.
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18may - on this weeks show, mike has a trade on WFC, here is the video clip video clip
Buy the July 33 call for .95
scott and dan do a good enough job of shooting the trade down. if anything i would do a call spread instead of an outright call purchase.
google docs spreadsheet for mikes trades: mikes trades
Sunday, May 20, 2012
CLOSING the $GOOG OptionsAction trade - dan
5jun - doesnt change the outcome really, but a dan nathan and optionsaction tweet today referenced "closing a winning Put spread" in google, despite that trade not being what was mentioned on air. see dans full write up at Risk Reversal . want to take odds the OptionsAction show presents this as a big win on the show, despite the discrepencies of the trade?
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29may - going to close this out, reading between the lines per dans post on his Risk Reversal website .. he mentions that hes closing the trade and references what hes going to mention on-air.. im going to assume he adjusted the strikes prior to going on air since his strikes dont match what he presented on-air, maybe the price is correct maybe it isnt..but ill close trade based on his intent of the post.. pulling up the spread as it appeared on air , the 585/560..that can be closed for breakeven so will close it for flat in the spreadsheet. at least he trying to be transparent, im not assuming a conspiracy theory on this, simple mistake im sure.
mikes on air trades -->> mikes trades in google docs spreadsheet
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21 May- kind of an update to this trade..dan touched on it on the show. He added to the GOOG bearish position by adding a JULY put spread as well to catch earnings. see his writeup on his site -->> Risk reversal His June spread remains on as shown on-air.
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18may - on fridays show, dan presents a bullish trade on google . Buying a Put Spread, here is the video segment that has this trade video segment . not a fan of brian sullivan, makes any conversation more adversarial than it needs to be and yells over the top of everyone else (Dillon Ratigan style)
Buy the Jun 585/560 put spread for $6.50
Dan lays it out well, his max risk and max loss and why he wants to put this on. Dans usual method is that when spread works in his favor he takes profits on some of the lots and lets the rest run. good trade, possible 3 to 1 return, only alternative i would suggest is maybe do a July spread instead to give yourself more time to let it work for you, but then again what has been keeping me out is the upcoming stock split.
google docs spreadsheet of Dans trades: dans trades
follow me on twitter @mark_lexus for more trades, charts and setup
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29may - going to close this out, reading between the lines per dans post on his Risk Reversal website .. he mentions that hes closing the trade and references what hes going to mention on-air.. im going to assume he adjusted the strikes prior to going on air since his strikes dont match what he presented on-air, maybe the price is correct maybe it isnt..but ill close trade based on his intent of the post.. pulling up the spread as it appeared on air , the 585/560..that can be closed for breakeven so will close it for flat in the spreadsheet. at least he trying to be transparent, im not assuming a conspiracy theory on this, simple mistake im sure.
mikes on air trades -->> mikes trades in google docs spreadsheet
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21 May- kind of an update to this trade..dan touched on it on the show. He added to the GOOG bearish position by adding a JULY put spread as well to catch earnings. see his writeup on his site -->> Risk reversal His June spread remains on as shown on-air.
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18may - on fridays show, dan presents a bullish trade on google . Buying a Put Spread, here is the video segment that has this trade video segment . not a fan of brian sullivan, makes any conversation more adversarial than it needs to be and yells over the top of everyone else (Dillon Ratigan style)
Buy the Jun 585/560 put spread for $6.50
Dan lays it out well, his max risk and max loss and why he wants to put this on. Dans usual method is that when spread works in his favor he takes profits on some of the lots and lets the rest run. good trade, possible 3 to 1 return, only alternative i would suggest is maybe do a July spread instead to give yourself more time to let it work for you, but then again what has been keeping me out is the upcoming stock split.
google docs spreadsheet of Dans trades: dans trades
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Friday, May 18, 2012
CLOSING THE $CAT OptionsAction trade #2 - scott
6/15 - didnt turn out to help this viewer if they held to opex..hopefully they were able to take some profits when it dipped under 85...didnt expect an update but per my guidelines for tracking the on-air trades im booking this one as full loss at opex. scotts onair trades in google docs spreadsheet
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5/18 - scott answers viewer email about CAT on the OptionsAction web extra , here is the video CAT trade.. scott recommends a Put spread
Buy the June 85/80 put spread for $1.25
google docs spreadsheet for all of Scotts trades: scott spreadsheet
Was amused by his comments that he did not want to risk a lot to make a little even though he just featured a credit call spread few days ago on CAT where he risked $3.10 to make $1.90.. this is an ok trade if you have a bearish thesis, could be right if it breaks this support level its testing now.
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5/18 - scott answers viewer email about CAT on the OptionsAction web extra , here is the video CAT trade.. scott recommends a Put spread
Buy the June 85/80 put spread for $1.25
google docs spreadsheet for all of Scotts trades: scott spreadsheet
Was amused by his comments that he did not want to risk a lot to make a little even though he just featured a credit call spread few days ago on CAT where he risked $3.10 to make $1.90.. this is an ok trade if you have a bearish thesis, could be right if it breaks this support level its testing now.
follow me on twitter @mark_lexus for more free setup , trades and charts
Thursday, May 17, 2012
CLOSING the - $FIO OptionsAction Trade - mike
15 Jun - this trade will be a winner as most covered call trades tend to be. since this trade aired the stock has drifted down a bit so the jun20 call will expire at max profit if you still held. just note below that the alternative trade of selling the strangle would have been a winner by about $320 per lot if you took that route. this trade and mike khouws other on-air trades in a google docs spreadsheet
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17may - mike has trade on FIO on tonights show based on facebook hype.. i dont follow the stock but here is the video clip FIO clip
Sell the Jun 20 call for $2.00
implied is that you are already long the stock. mike emphasizes how juiced up the options are.. standard covered call trade pretty much.. you have to be ok with capping your upside at $22 though. the stock is at a low going back to about november, ie everyone that has bought since nov and held has a loss.. likely not get back to breakeven with this $2 premium and a call away at $20.. would be ok if you bought today i guess or you expect selloff to continue.. an alternative if you want to enter this stock is to sell a Jun19 put for about $1.50..gets you long at $17.50. also if you are long already and want to add another block.. look at selling the June 20/19 straddle..as in sell mikes jun20 call and sell my jun19 put.. collect $3.50..gets you long that second block at $15.50.
google docs spreadsheet of Mikes OptionsAction trades -->> spreadsheet
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17may - mike has trade on FIO on tonights show based on facebook hype.. i dont follow the stock but here is the video clip FIO clip
Sell the Jun 20 call for $2.00
implied is that you are already long the stock. mike emphasizes how juiced up the options are.. standard covered call trade pretty much.. you have to be ok with capping your upside at $22 though. the stock is at a low going back to about november, ie everyone that has bought since nov and held has a loss.. likely not get back to breakeven with this $2 premium and a call away at $20.. would be ok if you bought today i guess or you expect selloff to continue.. an alternative if you want to enter this stock is to sell a Jun19 put for about $1.50..gets you long at $17.50. also if you are long already and want to add another block.. look at selling the June 20/19 straddle..as in sell mikes jun20 call and sell my jun19 put.. collect $3.50..gets you long that second block at $15.50.
google docs spreadsheet of Mikes OptionsAction trades -->> spreadsheet
Wednesday, May 16, 2012
CLOSING the $BBY Options Action trade - mike
15jun - as usual OptionsAction failing to meet up to its advertised "constant trade updates" to this trade from 16may as seen below...so not seeing any on air comments on this trade it can be taking off for 1.70 today for a win. possible alternatives are to sell a July19put on monday to further reduce the cost of the SEP put if you want to keep holding. this trade and mikes other on-air trades in a google docs spreadsheet
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16may - on tonights fast money, mike khouw has a trade for Best Buy.. an odd trade again, here is the video..watch mikes face when brian talks..funny....the cameras still on Mikey..tonights show
Buy the June / Sep 19 Put Calender spread - sell the Jun19/Buy the Sep19 for about .95
mentioned that earnings are tuesday.. his comments that "these are the kind of circumstances " that line up for a calender spread... i disagree a bit.. the advantage of calenders is that the front month option decays faster than the back month and that the front month premium is elevated because of earnings (as seen in the IV)..the June IV is 57 and the Sep IV is 48 according to Trademonster. mike mentions that after the June rolls off he may be keeping the Sep puts (at a discount), also sneaks in at end that its for a range bound expectation.
This spread is right at the money. After earnings there will be some volitilty crush but not as much as most expect since its not hugely elevated. If the stock moves a few bucks in either direction this trade will be flat at best. an alternative would be that since he mentioned he would likely keep the Sep option, why not take a shot at the expiring May options..afterhours quote still shows about .30 left for this week.. make it a May/Sep 19calender spread..try to get that quick 30cents..if under 19 on friday opex.. roll it to the June 19put as the original spread is setup... if over 19 on friday, you keep the May 30cents, then monday sell the June 19.
I would not be putting mikes trade on till day of or day prior to earnings in case stock moves till then, additionally after the June put comes off the board..you can sell a July 19put, then an Aug, etc to keep working that cost basis down. bottom line i would not do mikes trade, doesnt mean it will not make money.
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16may - on tonights fast money, mike khouw has a trade for Best Buy.. an odd trade again, here is the video..watch mikes face when brian talks..funny....the cameras still on Mikey..tonights show
Buy the June / Sep 19 Put Calender spread - sell the Jun19/Buy the Sep19 for about .95
mentioned that earnings are tuesday.. his comments that "these are the kind of circumstances " that line up for a calender spread... i disagree a bit.. the advantage of calenders is that the front month option decays faster than the back month and that the front month premium is elevated because of earnings (as seen in the IV)..the June IV is 57 and the Sep IV is 48 according to Trademonster. mike mentions that after the June rolls off he may be keeping the Sep puts (at a discount), also sneaks in at end that its for a range bound expectation.
This spread is right at the money. After earnings there will be some volitilty crush but not as much as most expect since its not hugely elevated. If the stock moves a few bucks in either direction this trade will be flat at best. an alternative would be that since he mentioned he would likely keep the Sep option, why not take a shot at the expiring May options..afterhours quote still shows about .30 left for this week.. make it a May/Sep 19calender spread..try to get that quick 30cents..if under 19 on friday opex.. roll it to the June 19put as the original spread is setup... if over 19 on friday, you keep the May 30cents, then monday sell the June 19.
I would not be putting mikes trade on till day of or day prior to earnings in case stock moves till then, additionally after the June put comes off the board..you can sell a July 19put, then an Aug, etc to keep working that cost basis down. bottom line i would not do mikes trade, doesnt mean it will not make money.
google docs spreadsheet of all of Mikes trades -->>spreadsheet
Monday, May 14, 2012
CLOSING THE $CAT Options Action trade - scott
original post at bottom
15 jun - a good winner , expiring at max profit today.sometimes the coin flips comes up for you sometimes they dont. scotts on-air trades in google docs spreadsheet
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31may - based on a tweet response today from scott, he appears to still be holding this spread despite being near 85% of max profit.. good winner so far..i think if i still held after todays down move off of JOY earnings, id be taking profits..just me though:
@ScottNations taking profits yet on you $CAT credit spreads?
@CNBCTradeTrackr @CNBCOptions Why? It's working and it would cost me 0.30 to buy it back.
14may - on tonights fast money, scott nations has a trade on CAT, here is the video clipCAT clip . guy adami adds some comments as well
Sell the June 95/100 call credit spread for $1.90 credit
couple issues i have with this trade. if youve followed me for a while youll probably guess the reasons:
1. i dont like selling credit spreads in general just because i dont like being in position to root for stock to not go up. for CAT specific, any China positive news will move this stock
2. my cutoff for selling credit spreads is to have a 75% or higher probability of max profit..use the Trademonster analyse tab for that.. this spread comes up right at 56% probability of max profit..50% probability is like a coin flip..essentially like guessing.
3. the strikes for this spread are so close to at-the-money..this stock was just near 97 one trading day ago..so you have no leeway in stock movement for the next 30days.
4. i like my strikes to be on the other side of some technical level that will help stop the movement against me..(doesnt mean it cant keep going of course). so for this chart i would like a credit spread to be at least above the 200day that it just lost...so really the first level if i was to do a credit spread, which im not, would be to look at the 100 level..ie a 100/105 credit spread..the presumption is that the 200day will act as resistence now
5. looking at the June 100/105 spread, would get about a .80 credit and have 75% probability of max profit..its above the 200 day with the 50day quickly approaching
6. the upside to scotts trade is that if timed right and you got that $1.90 entry, a further down move will yield a profit right away and depending on the amount of profit you are looking for, you could peel out of this with 25% profit real quick.
not saying that scott will not be right and make a profit but his selection just does not fit with my rules.. im looking for higher probability setups... 56% is not high probability..
15 jun - a good winner , expiring at max profit today.sometimes the coin flips comes up for you sometimes they dont. scotts on-air trades in google docs spreadsheet
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31may - based on a tweet response today from scott, he appears to still be holding this spread despite being near 85% of max profit.. good winner so far..i think if i still held after todays down move off of JOY earnings, id be taking profits..just me though:
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14may - on tonights fast money, scott nations has a trade on CAT, here is the video clipCAT clip . guy adami adds some comments as well
Sell the June 95/100 call credit spread for $1.90 credit
couple issues i have with this trade. if youve followed me for a while youll probably guess the reasons:
1. i dont like selling credit spreads in general just because i dont like being in position to root for stock to not go up. for CAT specific, any China positive news will move this stock
2. my cutoff for selling credit spreads is to have a 75% or higher probability of max profit..use the Trademonster analyse tab for that.. this spread comes up right at 56% probability of max profit..50% probability is like a coin flip..essentially like guessing.
3. the strikes for this spread are so close to at-the-money..this stock was just near 97 one trading day ago..so you have no leeway in stock movement for the next 30days.
4. i like my strikes to be on the other side of some technical level that will help stop the movement against me..(doesnt mean it cant keep going of course). so for this chart i would like a credit spread to be at least above the 200day that it just lost...so really the first level if i was to do a credit spread, which im not, would be to look at the 100 level..ie a 100/105 credit spread..the presumption is that the 200day will act as resistence now
5. looking at the June 100/105 spread, would get about a .80 credit and have 75% probability of max profit..its above the 200 day with the 50day quickly approaching
6. the upside to scotts trade is that if timed right and you got that $1.90 entry, a further down move will yield a profit right away and depending on the amount of profit you are looking for, you could peel out of this with 25% profit real quick.
not saying that scott will not be right and make a profit but his selection just does not fit with my rules.. im looking for higher probability setups... 56% is not high probability..
CLOSING $JPM Options Action trade - dan
1 june - thought this one would be dead and buried already since per dans public tweets and posting on his website he closed out of this trade 2weeks ago. had to call bullshit on cnbc today for revisiting this trade in order to make everyone look good on TV.. as you can see below and on the spreadsheet, Dan did not make 300% on this trade as melissa said.. would have been accurate if she rephrased that piece and said the trade is "up 300% if you still held it" or something to that effect. it was a good trade but why the need to embellish the facts?? Disappointed that Dan was not upfront about that he closed this trade already much lower than the graphics displayed.. not a big deal but CNBC should have been more transparent about it..but why start now. "constant trade updates" .. heres tonights clip JPM clip
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18 may - per dans tweet today, closed rest of this position at 1.25 for a good win and fully transparent. here is his note on it from his site: Risk Reversal
17may - per Dans twitter message, hes closing half of this position at $1.00 to get the initial cost back, letting rest run. here are his comments from his website: Risk Reversal
google docs spreadsheet for dan's optionsaction trades: spreadsheet
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11may show, dan puts on a "put spread" for JP morgan. im avoiding the financials myself, too much headline risk etc. , but i like dans trade. low risk,low premium trade. here is the video clip video clip
Buy the June 36/34 put spread for .50
risk reward is 3 to 1, so max profit if stock is below 34 at june opex is $1.50 so for 10 lot, you pay $500 to make a max of $1500. if stock moves in dans favor im sure he will take profits on some to get his money back and let the rest run. you dont have to hold it to opex.. as stock moves down you will profit some but not the full $1.50. risk less to make more
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18 may - per dans tweet today, closed rest of this position at 1.25 for a good win and fully transparent. here is his note on it from his site: Risk Reversal
17may - per Dans twitter message, hes closing half of this position at $1.00 to get the initial cost back, letting rest run. here are his comments from his website: Risk Reversal
google docs spreadsheet for dan's optionsaction trades: spreadsheet
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11may show, dan puts on a "put spread" for JP morgan. im avoiding the financials myself, too much headline risk etc. , but i like dans trade. low risk,low premium trade. here is the video clip video clip
Buy the June 36/34 put spread for .50
risk reward is 3 to 1, so max profit if stock is below 34 at june opex is $1.50 so for 10 lot, you pay $500 to make a max of $1500. if stock moves in dans favor im sure he will take profits on some to get his money back and let the rest run. you dont have to hold it to opex.. as stock moves down you will profit some but not the full $1.50. risk less to make more
CLOSING THE $ZNGA OptionsAction trade - mike
15jun -not surprised OptionsAction did not revisit this stinker of a trade. not good way to attract viewers with big losers.. remember that other ZNGA clip where a caller did similar thing and they were yucking it up on the desk about it. not laughing too much now. this put sale for .50 can now be bought back at 1.70 so a loss of 1.20 per contract unless for some reason you want to be put the stock at 7 for some type of tax strategy. mikes on air trades in google docs spreadsheet
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14may - on fridays show, mike has a trade on ZNGA..."selling a put" here is the video clip ZNGA clip
Sell the June 7 put for .50 ($50)
was touched on briefly in the lead in. for every Put you sell you will have to set aside about $700 in buying power/margin incase you have to actually buy the stock at 7 (get put the stock). You will keep that $50 so your cost basis will be $6.50 if that happens at June opex. So for a 10 lot you have to set aside $7000 while collecting $500 credit. while i dont follow ZNGA, if your thesis is that you have caught the falling knife and it will reverse from here on the facebook coattails then an alternative is to do a "call spread risk reversal"
Sell the June 7 put for .50
buy the jun 8/10 call spread for .50ish
might get a lucky fill and put this on for zero cost...for a 10lot with same margin set aside requirement, your max profit is the 8/10 call spread of $2000 vs just the $500 on the cash secured put
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14may - on fridays show, mike has a trade on ZNGA..."selling a put" here is the video clip ZNGA clip
Sell the June 7 put for .50 ($50)
was touched on briefly in the lead in. for every Put you sell you will have to set aside about $700 in buying power/margin incase you have to actually buy the stock at 7 (get put the stock). You will keep that $50 so your cost basis will be $6.50 if that happens at June opex. So for a 10 lot you have to set aside $7000 while collecting $500 credit. while i dont follow ZNGA, if your thesis is that you have caught the falling knife and it will reverse from here on the facebook coattails then an alternative is to do a "call spread risk reversal"
Sell the June 7 put for .50
buy the jun 8/10 call spread for .50ish
might get a lucky fill and put this on for zero cost...for a 10lot with same margin set aside requirement, your max profit is the 8/10 call spread of $2000 vs just the $500 on the cash secured put
Wednesday, May 9, 2012
CLOSING the $AVP Option Action Trade -mike 5/9/2012
20 july - like i said below..have to make a decision... with stock at 15ish now..i like the selling strangles strategy if you already are long and are ok in adding to it..so you would have to decide what to do here since surfing goats takes priority over revisiting losing trades.. selling the strangle for this name resulted in the calls of course going out worthless (max profit) but the puts now are at $3.70 . so to get out of this position you would essentially have to pay $3.70 to exit .. on a $2.05 credit entry.. will close the puts at 3.70 in the spreadsheet..chaulk up another loser. do you even know anyone that is in Avon? i dont
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17july - going to have to make a decision soon on this one if you followed mike in..see my original write up at bottom, with stock at 16.93 it could go either way of profit or loss this week..depends on if you want more shares. some of those "constant trade updates" sure would be helpful to the viewers right about now.
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29jun - if you followed mike into this as well its looking like you are going to be "put" some stock with stock at 15ish unless you take some action. mikes on-air trades in a google docs spreadsheet
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9may - Good strategy tonight by mike, another one of my favorites.. that would be "selling a strangle". here is the video clip AVP clip . with stock near 22
Sell the July 24 call for $1.05
Sell the July 19 put for $1.05
total credit $2.05
mentioned by mike is that he recommends this if you are long the stock. could have emphasized it a bit more along the line of "if you are long the stock and want a way to buy more at a lower price".. kind of danced around it a bit i thought..hence karens question. so this is a covered call with a cash secured put sale essentially, so you will have to set aside buying power to buy 100 shares for as long has you hold that short put, its not a free trade.
the great part about this like mike said is that if stock moves up to 24 or higher..you keep both premiums so you essentially sell at $26.05 . flip side is that if stock drops a below 19 at july opex you will buy another 100 shares per put (be put the stock), but you keep both premiums again so your entry into more stock would be $16.95 . you can always just buy back that Put at anytime prior to opex if you dont want to buy more shares or you the premium has decayed enough to give you a satisfactory profit or you need that buying power elsewhere... you dont have to hold to opex.
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17july - going to have to make a decision soon on this one if you followed mike in..see my original write up at bottom, with stock at 16.93 it could go either way of profit or loss this week..depends on if you want more shares. some of those "constant trade updates" sure would be helpful to the viewers right about now.
click-->https://twitter.com/Mark_Lexus to follow on twitter
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29jun - if you followed mike into this as well its looking like you are going to be "put" some stock with stock at 15ish unless you take some action. mikes on-air trades in a google docs spreadsheet
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9may - Good strategy tonight by mike, another one of my favorites.. that would be "selling a strangle". here is the video clip AVP clip . with stock near 22
Sell the July 24 call for $1.05
Sell the July 19 put for $1.05
total credit $2.05
mentioned by mike is that he recommends this if you are long the stock. could have emphasized it a bit more along the line of "if you are long the stock and want a way to buy more at a lower price".. kind of danced around it a bit i thought..hence karens question. so this is a covered call with a cash secured put sale essentially, so you will have to set aside buying power to buy 100 shares for as long has you hold that short put, its not a free trade.
the great part about this like mike said is that if stock moves up to 24 or higher..you keep both premiums so you essentially sell at $26.05 . flip side is that if stock drops a below 19 at july opex you will buy another 100 shares per put (be put the stock), but you keep both premiums again so your entry into more stock would be $16.95 . you can always just buy back that Put at anytime prior to opex if you dont want to buy more shares or you the premium has decayed enough to give you a satisfactory profit or you need that buying power elsewhere... you dont have to hold to opex.
Monday, May 7, 2012
CLOSING the $CSCO Options Action trade from 5/7/2012 - scott
original post at bottom:
11may - closing this trade out in the spreadsheet, scott replied to my tweet:
@Mark_Lexus That one really sucked but this is why I went ahead and spent $0.05 on that $17 put. Let it go to expiration now.
read the original post and watch the video segment again first... a little bit of a conflict to me..says he would be ok buying the stock under 19 (18.60) but then recommends a put credit spread. might be six in one/ half dozen in other but with stock down under 17 today at lunch this credit put spread will realize the max loss. scott trys to salvage the conversation a bit with the tweet about the 17put.. as is common when comments get thrown out on air that they are ok buying stock lower as in selling puts or risk reversals, when that actually happens and the stock is lower the tone of the comments changes. the only thing ill really give credit on this one was his comment that he is limiting his loss by make it a credit spread vs just plain put sale. IMO, poor stock selection, poor strike selection , poor premium selection. Not exactly "risk less to make more" like the show trumpets.
spreadsheet --->>> scotts sheet
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10may - about the worst thing that could happen to this trade did..scotts trade was aired tuesday night so im sure alot of people saw that trade on fast money, logged onto their fidelity account and entered the trade for the next day..maybe they got lucky and got a bit of a price improvement at the open. to summarize some of the things i dont do with credit spreads:
1. i rarely sell credit spreads as an earnings play (i say rarely not never).. for every whoop-de-do AAPL reaction where you pat yourself on the back on how smart you are, you get a CSCO down 15% move and you kick yourself for putting it on.
2. i dont like selling weekly credit spreads..just when you think you have a stock figured out...BLAAMMM. and now you have no time to let stock recover
3. i dont sell credit spreads so close to at-the-money..this spread was nearly right at the money..below ATM if you entered that trade overnight. selling so close to ATM makes it just a coin flip. if you are going to go that close to ATM, then make sure the premium is worth it..like i said below
4. most importantly dont do #1,#2,#3 all at the same time.
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7may
scott has a trade on cisco ahead of earnings, here is the show options action
Sell a put spread (credit put spread) - weekly 19/17 put spread for .40 credit
in his remarks scott wants to be in a position to make money if stock goes up or is flat but is ok buying stock under 19. (that would be a good deal he says). im not a fan of selling credit spreads ahead of earnings. this trade has max profit of .40, max loss of 1.60... selling the 19put makes this trade almost a coin flip, 19 is right at the money, so delta is near 50... with scotts thesis that he wants up or flat move but ok to buy stock lower that seems like a textbook setup to just "sell a cash secured put" instead of a credit put spread.
Sell the weekly 19 put for .45 credit instead. i would not do either trade really. to get any decent premium you have to go so close to at-the-money it brings down the % probabilities of winning trade... 75%+ is my cut off, 50% is just like calling heads or tails. for a credit spread so close to ATM i would want a lot better premium to loss ratio..like max profit of $1.00 /max loss $1.00 vs just .40 credit..seems light. i also dont care for this stock and that cnbc will parse every word from CEO and apply it broadly to entire tech sector all day long.
11may - closing this trade out in the spreadsheet, scott replied to my tweet:
read the original post and watch the video segment again first... a little bit of a conflict to me..says he would be ok buying the stock under 19 (18.60) but then recommends a put credit spread. might be six in one/ half dozen in other but with stock down under 17 today at lunch this credit put spread will realize the max loss. scott trys to salvage the conversation a bit with the tweet about the 17put.. as is common when comments get thrown out on air that they are ok buying stock lower as in selling puts or risk reversals, when that actually happens and the stock is lower the tone of the comments changes. the only thing ill really give credit on this one was his comment that he is limiting his loss by make it a credit spread vs just plain put sale. IMO, poor stock selection, poor strike selection , poor premium selection. Not exactly "risk less to make more" like the show trumpets.
spreadsheet --->>> scotts sheet
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10may - about the worst thing that could happen to this trade did..scotts trade was aired tuesday night so im sure alot of people saw that trade on fast money, logged onto their fidelity account and entered the trade for the next day..maybe they got lucky and got a bit of a price improvement at the open. to summarize some of the things i dont do with credit spreads:
1. i rarely sell credit spreads as an earnings play (i say rarely not never).. for every whoop-de-do AAPL reaction where you pat yourself on the back on how smart you are, you get a CSCO down 15% move and you kick yourself for putting it on.
2. i dont like selling weekly credit spreads..just when you think you have a stock figured out...BLAAMMM. and now you have no time to let stock recover
3. i dont sell credit spreads so close to at-the-money..this spread was nearly right at the money..below ATM if you entered that trade overnight. selling so close to ATM makes it just a coin flip. if you are going to go that close to ATM, then make sure the premium is worth it..like i said below
4. most importantly dont do #1,#2,#3 all at the same time.
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7may
scott has a trade on cisco ahead of earnings, here is the show options action
Sell a put spread (credit put spread) - weekly 19/17 put spread for .40 credit
in his remarks scott wants to be in a position to make money if stock goes up or is flat but is ok buying stock under 19. (that would be a good deal he says). im not a fan of selling credit spreads ahead of earnings. this trade has max profit of .40, max loss of 1.60... selling the 19put makes this trade almost a coin flip, 19 is right at the money, so delta is near 50... with scotts thesis that he wants up or flat move but ok to buy stock lower that seems like a textbook setup to just "sell a cash secured put" instead of a credit put spread.
Sell the weekly 19 put for .45 credit instead. i would not do either trade really. to get any decent premium you have to go so close to at-the-money it brings down the % probabilities of winning trade... 75%+ is my cut off, 50% is just like calling heads or tails. for a credit spread so close to ATM i would want a lot better premium to loss ratio..like max profit of $1.00 /max loss $1.00 vs just .40 credit..seems light. i also dont care for this stock and that cnbc will parse every word from CEO and apply it broadly to entire tech sector all day long.
Sunday, May 6, 2012
CLOSING THE $DIS Options Action Trade - mike
15Jjun - Options Action revisits the Disney trade from 6may under the lofty headline of "i want more cash" and as usual overpromises undelivers. heres the clip, the clip . with that exciting lead-in about how to make more money on a winning trade you would expect some type of fancy options strategy, maybe selling a higher strike call to "leg into" a spread to lock in a gain or something to actually make more money, but then Carter Worth comes on and says take profits, then Mike says hes inclined to take the money and run..dont they read their own scripts?? Lame. Mike says at the end you can roll the call up. scott adds nothing to the conversation as usual, dont know why he is even on the show anymore. watch that riduculous self promo at end of this clip for you to follow cnbcoptions on twitter...sounds pretty cool and hardhitting doesnt it..breaking news, analysis, trades..wow..good deal..oh wait.. cnbcoptions hasnt tweeted in 10calender day. OPUD, Over Promise Under Deliver. just chaps my ass when they dont live up to their own hype, anyway, i will close this trade in the spreadsheet per mikes comments, nice winner for a change for mike. here is the spreadsheet google docs spreadsheet
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6may - on the show, mike has a trade on Disney, here is the video clip if you missed the show Disney clip . super simple buy a call strategy. nothing pops in my head about commenting on this.. i dont follow disney.. you dont have to trade/ follow everything.
Buy the July 45 call for .85
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6may - on the show, mike has a trade on Disney, here is the video clip if you missed the show Disney clip . super simple buy a call strategy. nothing pops in my head about commenting on this.. i dont follow disney.. you dont have to trade/ follow everything.
Buy the July 45 call for .85
CLOSING the $IBM Options Action Trade - dan
1jun - a little late posting this one, i just came across where he closed this trade per his website. closed the trade at 8.00 for a good profit. Dans on-air trades in a google docs spreadsheet
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6may - on Options action show, dan had a put spread trade on IBM. only comment ill add is that Dan was specific about waiting for an up day to put this on. here is the video if you missed the show IBM segment
Buy the July 200/185 put spread for 3.30
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6may - on Options action show, dan had a put spread trade on IBM. only comment ill add is that Dan was specific about waiting for an up day to put this on. here is the video if you missed the show IBM segment
Buy the July 200/185 put spread for 3.30
Friday, May 4, 2012
CLOSING the $LEN Options Action Web Extra Trade -scott
17 aug - as with most ratio spreads this one was profitable..a good trade. either as a trade repair or as a double bullish trade. the spread was put on for .15 credit and could have been closed at $2.30.. plus any gain from the stock along the way.
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4may - tonights Options Action web extra features one of my favorite options trades, the Ratio Spread, sometimes called a Backspread. sometimes a "trade repair", sometimes "CPR", see video here web extra . what i call this sometimes is "a free trade"
scott is doing a 1x2 Call spread:
Buy one of the Aug 29 calls at $2.65
Sell two of the Aug 32 calls at $1.40 each
credit of $.15 per 1x2
scott correctly mentioned that this should be done being already long stock. so breaking it down, say you own 100 shares with stock at 28ish.. you are buying one call (29) and selling two higher strike calls (32).. what this is , is a stock with covered call and an additional 29/32 call spread. so you will not need any additional margin/buying power to put this on. The max profit of this trade is a pin at 32 at Aug opex. Just the ratio portion of the trade profits from 29-35. but you also profit on your stock as it moves up as well, so a ratio spread gives you double upside with no added risk. scott says you can get "called away" at essentially at 35..true, or you can just close out this ratio spread instead of just starring at your screen on opex day.
Better than this is doing a ratio spread on top of a long option instead of the stock, say a Deep-in-the-money LEAP option, say the jan2013 20 strike call option.. 100 shares of stock is $2800 cash, but one Jan2013 20 strike is about $925.. one third the cost needed... add this same ratio spread and your broker just looks at it just like a covered call... the jan2013 call matches up with an Aug 32 short call which makes it a diagonal spread and then you have a regular call spread with the remainder (29/32).. again, no added margin needed.. so you can still get that double upside but now only commit $925 instead of $2800
But check this out, if you had $2800 to commit to this, instead of buying 100 shares...buy THREE of those Jan2013 20 calls for about $2800...now you can do a 3 lot of the ratio spread (buy 3 aug 29's / sell 6 aug 32's). Using the trademonster analyse tab, if stock pins at 32 on Aug opex with this $2800 investment into 3 calls, your profit is $1700...about 55%+ gain vs a $680 gain on owning stock and doing one ratio spread. Greater leverage.
Using Ratio spreads does not preclude you from still adding an additional hedge for downside..such as put spread, just gives you greater leverage to upside
Historically the issues ive had using ratios is that i did not go high enough in strikes..that the stock moved more than i expected.. so you might have to pay a little bit to get a wider spread to get that max gain...ie, this ratio does not help you if stock pops to 45 at Aug opex, you pretty much cap your gain at 35. so just staying with this example and not looking at the prices...would look at a 30/35 ratio spread for small debit... you can even get cute and just buy one 30 call , sell one 35 call and try to leg into that 2nd 35strike call if stock goes up to get a better price (and possibly make ratio zero cost).. Kudos to scott to pulling out a goodie but underused Ratio Spread. Downside is that you will not get that max profit till almost opex even if stock pops right away, have to plan on holding all the way.
who the heck is this guy????
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4may - tonights Options Action web extra features one of my favorite options trades, the Ratio Spread, sometimes called a Backspread. sometimes a "trade repair", sometimes "CPR", see video here web extra . what i call this sometimes is "a free trade"
scott is doing a 1x2 Call spread:
Buy one of the Aug 29 calls at $2.65
Sell two of the Aug 32 calls at $1.40 each
credit of $.15 per 1x2
scott correctly mentioned that this should be done being already long stock. so breaking it down, say you own 100 shares with stock at 28ish.. you are buying one call (29) and selling two higher strike calls (32).. what this is , is a stock with covered call and an additional 29/32 call spread. so you will not need any additional margin/buying power to put this on. The max profit of this trade is a pin at 32 at Aug opex. Just the ratio portion of the trade profits from 29-35. but you also profit on your stock as it moves up as well, so a ratio spread gives you double upside with no added risk. scott says you can get "called away" at essentially at 35..true, or you can just close out this ratio spread instead of just starring at your screen on opex day.
Better than this is doing a ratio spread on top of a long option instead of the stock, say a Deep-in-the-money LEAP option, say the jan2013 20 strike call option.. 100 shares of stock is $2800 cash, but one Jan2013 20 strike is about $925.. one third the cost needed... add this same ratio spread and your broker just looks at it just like a covered call... the jan2013 call matches up with an Aug 32 short call which makes it a diagonal spread and then you have a regular call spread with the remainder (29/32).. again, no added margin needed.. so you can still get that double upside but now only commit $925 instead of $2800
But check this out, if you had $2800 to commit to this, instead of buying 100 shares...buy THREE of those Jan2013 20 calls for about $2800...now you can do a 3 lot of the ratio spread (buy 3 aug 29's / sell 6 aug 32's). Using the trademonster analyse tab, if stock pins at 32 on Aug opex with this $2800 investment into 3 calls, your profit is $1700...about 55%+ gain vs a $680 gain on owning stock and doing one ratio spread. Greater leverage.
Using Ratio spreads does not preclude you from still adding an additional hedge for downside..such as put spread, just gives you greater leverage to upside
Historically the issues ive had using ratios is that i did not go high enough in strikes..that the stock moved more than i expected.. so you might have to pay a little bit to get a wider spread to get that max gain...ie, this ratio does not help you if stock pops to 45 at Aug opex, you pretty much cap your gain at 35. so just staying with this example and not looking at the prices...would look at a 30/35 ratio spread for small debit... you can even get cute and just buy one 30 call , sell one 35 call and try to leg into that 2nd 35strike call if stock goes up to get a better price (and possibly make ratio zero cost).. Kudos to scott to pulling out a goodie but underused Ratio Spread. Downside is that you will not get that max profit till almost opex even if stock pops right away, have to plan on holding all the way.
who the heck is this guy????
Thursday, May 3, 2012
CLOSING the 5/3/2012 $CHK Options Action trade - scott
21 oct - if you had done what i mentioned below this apparent loser would have been a small winner.. if you had just put on this trade and done nothing (like no twitter updates) then its a small loss with stock above 20 at opex..you should have been selling front month 20calls every month to further reduce your cost basis..could have done that 3-4 times at least. but will go down in spreadsheet as a loss since no update was provided on-air. spreadsheet
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26sep - been a long time since this one aired, if you took no actions you are sitting on a 75% loss with the Oct call worth about 26cents.. those actions like i suggested below could have been selling additional front month short20calls to keep reducing the cost basis. 3weeks to go to opex
click-->Follow @Mark_Lexus to follow on twitter
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3may - on tonights fast money, scott has a trade on CHK. i actually like this trade, a low premium way to take a position. here is the video CHK trade . Joe also adds some comments on CHKM.
Buy the June / Oct 20 call calender for $1.00 (sell the June, buy the oct)
i dont follow the stock except for what fast money talks about but what i would have added is that if/when the june call expires worthless (max profit to you), then look to sell a July 20 call.. getting back into a calender again and further reducing the cost basis of the trade, then again for aug and Sep.
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26sep - been a long time since this one aired, if you took no actions you are sitting on a 75% loss with the Oct call worth about 26cents.. those actions like i suggested below could have been selling additional front month short20calls to keep reducing the cost basis. 3weeks to go to opex
click-->Follow @Mark_Lexus to follow on twitter
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3may - on tonights fast money, scott has a trade on CHK. i actually like this trade, a low premium way to take a position. here is the video CHK trade . Joe also adds some comments on CHKM.
Buy the June / Oct 20 call calender for $1.00 (sell the June, buy the oct)
i dont follow the stock except for what fast money talks about but what i would have added is that if/when the june call expires worthless (max profit to you), then look to sell a July 20 call.. getting back into a calender again and further reducing the cost basis of the trade, then again for aug and Sep.
Wednesday, May 2, 2012
CLOSING FCX Options Action trade - mike - 5/2/2012
17 aug - stock has made a good recovery off the lows..enough so for this trade to swing back to a profit if you followed and held the whole way. probably were shitting some bricks along the way a month ago.. this put sale can now be closed out at about $1.60
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25july - been over 2months since this trade was shown on air, lets see how it looks with weeks to go to aug opex.. stock is at 31ish now and the put would be closed at about $5.75..so about a $300 paper loss if you followed this trade. with no action by you , you will get "put the stock" at effective price of $34.30 if it does not rebound.
click-->https://twitter.com/Mark_Lexus on twitter
2may - mike khouw has a trade for the short options action segment on fast money tonight. here is the video video clip
Sell the Aug 37 put for $2.70
mike says that will yield 7% to maturity. ok now the information he did not say. first off this is not a free trade, you will need to have about $3700 in margin/buying power for each put you sell, this will be set aside in your account to cover if you have to buy the stock (get put the stock) at 37 at opex. yes you keep the $270 and are effectively long at 34.30.. that $3700 will be unavailable until you close out that put. If thats your idea of a good use of $3700 for 4 months to make $270 in Aug then knock yourself out. If the stock rises for whatever reason, the put decreases in value some along the way, so profit to you.. but again are you trying to just make $100-$200 on a decrease in put value? what if the stock goes down in the meantime.. that Put goes up (paper loss to you).. and you still have to have that margin set aside.so your not making anything, just working on that time decay for the option.
Instead, if you absolutely had to commit $3700 to this stock, go ahead and buy the common at $38.15 after hours and also sell a June 39 covered call for $135. This gives you an upside of $40.35 which is about $200 above where it is now. When June Opex is complete, sell a July covered call, then an Aug covered call after that. I think these monthly covered calls will bring in more than just that one Aug put sale. I see FCX pays a dividend so you will get one of those payments as well.
Just hard for me to rationalize setting aside $3700 to make 7% that way. but thats just me, i would look to use that $3700 in buying power elsewhere
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25july - been over 2months since this trade was shown on air, lets see how it looks with weeks to go to aug opex.. stock is at 31ish now and the put would be closed at about $5.75..so about a $300 paper loss if you followed this trade. with no action by you , you will get "put the stock" at effective price of $34.30 if it does not rebound.
click-->https://twitter.com/Mark_Lexus on twitter
2may - mike khouw has a trade for the short options action segment on fast money tonight. here is the video video clip
Sell the Aug 37 put for $2.70
mike says that will yield 7% to maturity. ok now the information he did not say. first off this is not a free trade, you will need to have about $3700 in margin/buying power for each put you sell, this will be set aside in your account to cover if you have to buy the stock (get put the stock) at 37 at opex. yes you keep the $270 and are effectively long at 34.30.. that $3700 will be unavailable until you close out that put. If thats your idea of a good use of $3700 for 4 months to make $270 in Aug then knock yourself out. If the stock rises for whatever reason, the put decreases in value some along the way, so profit to you.. but again are you trying to just make $100-$200 on a decrease in put value? what if the stock goes down in the meantime.. that Put goes up (paper loss to you).. and you still have to have that margin set aside.so your not making anything, just working on that time decay for the option.
Instead, if you absolutely had to commit $3700 to this stock, go ahead and buy the common at $38.15 after hours and also sell a June 39 covered call for $135. This gives you an upside of $40.35 which is about $200 above where it is now. When June Opex is complete, sell a July covered call, then an Aug covered call after that. I think these monthly covered calls will bring in more than just that one Aug put sale. I see FCX pays a dividend so you will get one of those payments as well.
Just hard for me to rationalize setting aside $3700 to make 7% that way. but thats just me, i would look to use that $3700 in buying power elsewhere
Tuesday, May 1, 2012
$V Options Action trade - mike
on tonights fast money, mike khouw has a trade on visa ahead of earnings. first off i would have added a comment along the lines that since mastercard is reporting before the open and MA and V trade together, to see how visa acts with mastercard and to adjust the strikes of this trade accordingly since visa reports after the close. here is video clip Visa clip , mike trade is a call calender
Buy the weekly / June 125 call calender (sell the weekly, buy the June) for $1.80
I will give him his prices, after hours this calender shows B/A 2.00/2.16 .. think they should check their prices closer to closing than pricing this out in the morning. there is a dollar difference on each of these strikes now and you would pay about 20% more than what mike is quoting.. regardless, lets drive on. mike correctly comments that options near term are pricier and will decay faster. also says historical move is 3% vs what options are implying now a 5% move. My first assumption is that the options market usually gets the moves pretty much right, so at first glance i think his strike selection is too low, i would go with the 130 strike. second i think that there is no need to use the June strike. main thing with calenders is getting the direction of the move correct.. if the trade is right it is right right away.. that weekly call will decay big time regardless of whether you buy the may or june call. i would buy the may 125 for mikes example, that brings the cost down almost 50%.. might get that calender for .95 at open, allowing you to buy twice as many lots if you have a certain dollar amount budgeted
IV for May weekly 125 is 60
IV for May 125 is 34
IV for June 125 is 28
plugging this info into the Trademonster analyse tab... mikes calender, assuming a move to exactly 125 shows a 30% gain. A weekly/may 125 calender shows a 60% gain
using my 130 strike alternative, weekly / May calender for .64 ish.. a move to 130 (thats about a 5% move that options are implying) shows a 148% gain the next day.
mikes trade will be a good winner if Visa just barely moves up..even less than the 3% historical move he quoted. if you had to use the 125 strikes, i would make it a weekly / may calender but first choice would be a move to 130 from the expected double whammy of mastercard earnings and then visa earnings
Buy the weekly / June 125 call calender (sell the weekly, buy the June) for $1.80
I will give him his prices, after hours this calender shows B/A 2.00/2.16 .. think they should check their prices closer to closing than pricing this out in the morning. there is a dollar difference on each of these strikes now and you would pay about 20% more than what mike is quoting.. regardless, lets drive on. mike correctly comments that options near term are pricier and will decay faster. also says historical move is 3% vs what options are implying now a 5% move. My first assumption is that the options market usually gets the moves pretty much right, so at first glance i think his strike selection is too low, i would go with the 130 strike. second i think that there is no need to use the June strike. main thing with calenders is getting the direction of the move correct.. if the trade is right it is right right away.. that weekly call will decay big time regardless of whether you buy the may or june call. i would buy the may 125 for mikes example, that brings the cost down almost 50%.. might get that calender for .95 at open, allowing you to buy twice as many lots if you have a certain dollar amount budgeted
IV for May weekly 125 is 60
IV for May 125 is 34
IV for June 125 is 28
plugging this info into the Trademonster analyse tab... mikes calender, assuming a move to exactly 125 shows a 30% gain. A weekly/may 125 calender shows a 60% gain
using my 130 strike alternative, weekly / May calender for .64 ish.. a move to 130 (thats about a 5% move that options are implying) shows a 148% gain the next day.
mikes trade will be a good winner if Visa just barely moves up..even less than the 3% historical move he quoted. if you had to use the 125 strikes, i would make it a weekly / may calender but first choice would be a move to 130 from the expected double whammy of mastercard earnings and then visa earnings
CLOSING this $C OptionsAction trade from 4/27 -dan
5/18 - dan is taking profits on his remaining block of this trade at 3.46 as noted in his tweet and on his site: risk reversal . nice winner for this trade.
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5/17 - per Dans tweet, hes taking profits on an additional 25% of the position at $3.36 , here are his comments from his website: Risk Reversal
google docs spreadsheet for dans optionsaction trades-->> spreadsheet
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5/8 - Dan closing half of this position per tweet:
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4/27 - late getting this one typed in so ill just stick to the facts, here is the video, citigroup trade is near end of this clip video
buy the July 32/27 put spread for $1.00
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5/17 - per Dans tweet, hes taking profits on an additional 25% of the position at $3.36 , here are his comments from his website: Risk Reversal
google docs spreadsheet for dans optionsaction trades-->> spreadsheet
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5/8 - Dan closing half of this position per tweet:
Trade Update (C): Closing Half of My July 32/27 Put Spread for Almost a Double, Will Let Other Half Ride http://t.co/kZU8tBlM - closing half at 1.75
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4/27 - late getting this one typed in so ill just stick to the facts, here is the video, citigroup trade is near end of this clip video
buy the July 32/27 put spread for $1.00
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