Friday, August 31, 2012

$DLTR Options Action trade - scott

31 aug - in todays web extra , scott answers viewer email and has a trade for DLTR, here is the video clip options action web extra

Buy the Jan2013 50/57.50 call spread for $2.00

ok, thats one way to put on a bullish position. but my usual comments that when i see a position that far out is to make it a series of calender spreads or diagonal spreads. since he is selling the 57.50 call for only .60 cents, selling a series of shorter dated calls might bring in more premium and reduce the cost basis of the long call.. such as buying the jan2013 50 call and instead selling the OCT 52.50 call against it for about .40 cents.. this "position" will still be profitable even if stock moves up past 52.50.. use your brokers platform to play with profit/loss levels based on where stock closes on Opex in Oct.... then when Oct opex expires, sell another upside call for Nov, same for Dec.. perfect situation would be for stock to grind its way up each month , you keep that front month premium each month.
    other option is since you are bullish and have 4months to opex, just buy that 50call and when stock starts moving up, maybe to the 50day moving average, then "leg into" the spread...then sell that upside call in Jan2013. but given these two alternatives, i would do the series of calender spreads. see all of scotts on-air trades in this google docs spreadsheet

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Sunday, August 26, 2012

CLOSING the $XLK Options Action trade - dan $aapl

21 sep - no dice again on a "short" AAPL play...dan had aaples number last year, really been off this year. low premium trade will go out at full loss

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24 aug - as mentioned previously, dan has a trade on this weeks options action on XLK , here is the video clip XLK clip . essentially a go short AAPL play but without shorting AAPL.

Buy the Sep 30/29 put spread for .20

dan lays out the thesis pretty well in the video clip. obviously dont need that big move to make a profit..just a small selloff and this spread is near a double. dan usually takes off half of the position when it doubles. cheap premium, defines the risk.. i did a few of these as well. see all of dans on-air trades in this google docs spreadsheet

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Saturday, August 25, 2012

CLOSING the $LVS Options Action trade - Mike

5 oct -  Options action revisiting this trade. que the graphics, big smiles, and music. now que up the misleading and inaccurate statements..what do they think this is .. the Obama campaign?? heres the video clip LVS clip . "i need more cash" is the weak catch phrase for this segment. "let's find a way to get even more money out of it. last week khouw and carter found a way" melissa lee says. must be some fancy options adjustment strategy coming up. never let the facts get in the way of some good tv.. some very generous prices are thrown out there with melissa saying the options could be sold today for 2.30.. very generous, lets see the high/low for that option per ameritrade was 1.82/2.40 with a closing bid/ask of 1.92/1.95..so we will just slip in a price at near the high of the day and run with it for the show, makes the averages look better. remember i said previously that just because a trade is featured on air it doesnt mean they have skin in the game. carter recommends take profits and mike is "inclined to agree" and makes some logical reasoning and will "take the money and run" .. not exactly a resounding statement to make me think it was more than a paper trade..something more to my liking would have been "i took profits today", or "we closed it out".. so where was that "i need more cash" portion of this segment...you know the khouw and carter found a way to make more cash lead-in. overpromise underdeliver.. since there was no tweet about this trade being closed out i will credit him a closing price on the trade at 1.95. Still a winner, but im skeptical. see all of mikes on air trades in this google docs spreadsheet

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5 oct - have to make a decision soon if you followed into this trade.. its up about 60 cents so far with stock at 45.70ish with 2weeks to go before opex. so if looking to "spread it out" , you need to do so quickly before that time decay takes all the premium out of it.

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24 aug - mike has a trade on options action this week on LVS, here is the video clip LVS clip . i dont like this space first off so i would not be following this trade.

Buy the Oct 44 call for $1.65

as usual , carter worth brings a multiyear chart to the show.. i disagree with it as usual. in general the further back in time you go the less relevant levels become.. this level that carter points out didnt mean much on way up to 62.. didnt mean much on way down to 35.. so i consider that level irrelevant because of whats happened since 2011..if it had not gone to 60 and just hit 50 again and sold off then maybe it makes sense.. im guessing that all those 50 level buyers from 2011 are long gone either took profits near 60 or stopped out since then.. regardless.. mike doing a straight up call purchase. mike makes it clear that he will "spread it out" by selling an upside call if the stock moves up . dont look for Options Action to tell you that though. mike has not had a good track record doing just straight up call purchases if you held all the way to opex, see all of mikes on-air trades in this google docs spreadsheet

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Friday, August 24, 2012

$AAPL OptionsAction web extra trade

part 2 of the web extra has scott recommending a new trade on AAPL, here the video clip AAPL clip

Buy the DEC 675/725 call spread for $18.50

pretty straight forward trade. as usual when i see a trade that far into the future i would rather to a diagonal spread.. buy that Dec675 and instead sell either upside weekly or monthly short calls.. the SEP 700 is going for $6.00 ish now. its a little more of an up front cost but you maximize the time decay of the short call by selling weekly or monthly options vs that DEC 725. see all of scotts on-air trades in this google docs spreadsheet

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Monday, August 20, 2012

UPDATE $TIF Options Action trade - mike

26 oct - been 2 months and no updates on-air.. stock is near 62ish.. and this ratio spread is worth about 60 cents.. so about 50% loss with 3 weeks to go.. since you are short an extra Put and its going for about 6 cents.. you might want to buy at least that extra put back in order to get back that margin/buying power you had to set aside. have not seen updates on-air but if you followed into this trade you have to make decision if you think it still has a downside potential or take it off and salvage the remaining premium for another trade.. if downside expectation then maybe close both those short calls and look to "releg" into a put spread if that down move happens.

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31 aug - just been 2 weeks and options action is revisiting this trade., here is the video clip from today, TIF revisit .. the summary seemed to take forever.. first off, see thats why i dont like doing longer dated ratio spreads..you have to wait to near opex to get that profit when the time decay kicks in on those two short puts. additionally, even if stock moves against you a bit you dont see much of a loss either.. carter worth is right, not much has happened, stock is up only 2bucks since this trade was on air..if you are going to go out 3 months on a ratio 2bucks and 2weeks dont matter too much.

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8-17 Mike with a rare 1x2 put spread on options action this week..heres the video clip TIF clip

Buy the Nov 60/52.5 1x2 put spread for $1.20 (but one 60, sell two 52.5's)

i like these trades but rarely do them. as usual i dont like the timeframe, would rather look to do something closer. glanced over quickly is that since you will be short that extra Put, you will have to set aside margin/buying power in case you get "put the stock"..your brokers margin requirements will vary but figure $5250 in margin to buy the stock at $52.50 in nov at opex if you take no action. essentially gives himself a wide profit zone from about 60-45 with max profit being a pin at 52.50 in NOV...scott makes an interesting point that if stock drops a ways you might want to buy it at that level anyway, ie that short put...if you have that attitude that you would be ok buying the stock at 52ish (effective price of 46ish really) then this is an excellant trade..just like selling a naked put.. but if it ACTUALLY drops that low, most traders quickly forget that part and take a loss. all in all i like the trade but i dont follow the stock. only lose money if it drops below 46ish at opex.. thats the other thing, you will not see profits till near the NOV opex since those two shorts are increasing in value as well so you have to be prepared to hold it almost all the way to see your profits..its not a quick trade. see all of mikes on-air trades in this google docs spreadsheet

CLOSING the $YUM Options Action trade - Dan

9oct - if you follow dan on twitter you will have seen his tweet and website post about closing this spread ahead of earnings at .47. he actually rolled it up and out to Nov has you can see in his write up, dans write up . for the purpose of this tracking blog i will just note the trade that was featured on air. little over a 50% loss on the trade. stock has moved up a surprising 5bucks on earnings, his Nov spread will need a good down move as well to get a profit. see all of dans on-air trades in this google docs spreadsheet

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28 sep - kind of a back door way to update this but during the NKE segment on tonights show, dan makes reference to this trade that he put on from a previous show. with the stock at 66ish , this spread has come back a bit to about .55 , so back to about a 50% paper loss..dan mentions earnings are in early oct so he said "he is sticking with it". start at about the 4min mark of this clip to hear dans comments NKE segment

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25 sep - been over a month since this trade was shown on air, if you followed dan on this trade you are at a 75% loss with the spread going for about .26 today..still have over 3 weeks to go but need a big move to make some money.

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8/17 - this weeks show Dan has a bearish trade on YUM, here is the video clip YUM clip

Buy the Oct 62.5/55 put spread for 1.10

he makes a good case for the trade, gives himself till oct to let it play out. Yum not a big mover, would have to take out those July lows to get a decent profit..seems like a long ways for this slow mover to have to fall..limits his risk by only committing $1.10 to the trade though so in that sense its a decent setup. see all of dans on- air trades in this google docs spreadsheet

Saturday, August 18, 2012

8/17 Options Action Web Extra $JCP

scott nations with the web extra tonight and a trade on JCP.. here is the video clip web extra

Buy the Jan2013 29/35 call spread for $1.00 with the stock near 24 today

although i like his setup in this case.. the defined risk part of the trade. i dont like his strikes..needs a 50% up move to get a max profit..lots of overhead supply, gap fill.. also needs to make a 25% up move just to break even.. i would tradeoff some of that potential profit by using lower strikes ..maybe like a 25/29 spread and pay a bit more...just because you go out to jan2013 doesnt guarentee it will work out of course..but i dont like being in situations where stock rallies 25% and you still dont make money.. i prefer to have a greater probability of profit vs hitting home runs... might work , might not. see all of scotts on-air trades in this google docs spreadsheet

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Friday, August 17, 2012

suggestion for Options Action

here is my suggestion for Options Action to use this gif video...shows mike and Enis stacking their bricks...their losing trades



the guys talented ..will give him that