Friday, April 20, 2012

$CVX trade on Options Action Web extra (scott) 4-20

20 apr - on this weeks options action web extra scott recommends a trade on CVX (why can he recommend trades on web extra but not on the regular show??) heres the video tonights videoanyway he recommends:

Sell the May 100/97.5 credit put spread for .60

not to enthused about this trade.. IV is so low on this stock that you have to pick strikes closer to ATM to make decent premium. over the last month the stock has dropped 12 bucks.. with the credit spread only 2.50 away from the short strike does not leave a lot of room if thesis is wrong. not going to be much of a volatility crush since its not highly elevated. trademonster shows earnings on 27apr. so if anything, i would not put this on right now if playing a bullish thesis thru earnings.. would wait till day of or day prior to put this on and base the strikes on where stock is at that time. seems like a odd selection to feature on the web extra with all the other names in the news right now. additionally, the delta of the short strike (100) is about .40 right now.. implying a 40% chance that stock is below 100 at opex... my cut off is 25% or lower... 40% is almost a coin flip. i would not do this trade.