Thursday, April 19, 2012

CLOSING THE update to $AAPL Options Action trade (mike)

20july -  mercifully mike pulls out a big win on this aaple short call, expiring today for max profit if you are still holding it.


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17july - still on track to for a big profit if still holding. went from big profit to getting threatened again after recent strength..should be a good payday.

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26jun - dont seem to say it often, but this trade from mike khouw looking to be a big winner if you followed.. still would rather sell front month short calls though for more flexibility. this short call on track for full profit.

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19apr - another trade im not understanding the logic of this from mike..guy just does not do anything short term.. here is the video video . essentially saying if you own the stock to sell a covered call.

Sell the July 620 call for $33 ($3300)

First off the stock was just 620 YESTERDAY. second, i dont like selling short calls on down days, doing it exactly backwards..sell the calls into up days..get better prices for one..IV moves in your direction. Third, why so far out, July is almost NEXT earnings cycle. from his video seems like he is concerned about a down move because of earnings.. if thats the case then do a trade with THIS earnings options...so many trades to be had in may, june.

Because its a july option it is all time premium, if stock drops you will profit some but leave alot on the table since july opex is still 90days away.

Couple alternatives if you also want protection for downside, with stock at 587 and assuming you own stock or a DITM LEAP..
#1.
Sell a weekly put spread collar:

Sell the weekly 610call for about $13
Buy the weekly 585put for about $22
Sell the weekly 550put for about $9
with limit order you might be able to fill at zero cost

if stock is at 550 or lower at next fridays opex your profit is $3000.. pretty close to mikes sell short call premium... and you keep the stock and can sell other calls against it or do ratio spreads between now and july. if stock moves up you still have participate up to 610..so another $23 of upside.

#2
Sell a May covered call. mikes argument that options premiums are getting bid up is accurate and May's have a higher IV than July

Sell the May590 call for $30

May opex is 29 days away, time decay will be to your advantage and allows you to put on a few more trades..sell more calls, weekly calls, ratios up until july..this is profitable up to 620.

regardless, i would put on a trade the tuesday of earnings to see where stock is then..could be at 540 or could be at 630.