24aug - Options Action revisits one of mikes trades that goes to Jan2013, heres the video clip BBY clip..if mike actually did put his money where his mouth was and put the trade on prior to the show during the trading day he might have had a quick profit since the stock popped the following monday after the show aired (before joe six-pack could put on the trade), this risk reversal that mike featured last month for a 25cent credit can now be closed at 2.47 debit... so about a 9x loss.. see how sneaky options action is.. by saying its only a loss of $200..yeah, true..thats per lot but still you lost 9x what you got for a credit. so mikes taking the loss.. Carter Worth cant say the "L" word and instead says to walk away. alternatives to "walking away"... as a minimum close out the put for starters. You can keep the 24call as a lotto ticket or keep it and sell near term options against it (calenders)..the DEC 24 is going for about .45... that brings the cost of the Jan2013 call down alot based on what you would get by closing it outright. never know, maybe the buyout does happen. see all of mikes on-air trades in this google docs spreadsheet
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29 Jun - Carter Worth if you will notice in the clip is trying to use fundamental reasons for recommending a buy vs technicals. leads off with a multiyear chart showing a downtrend then starts talking non TA metrics.. when a chart lover trys to validate a stock call based on fundamentals vs just charts (regardless if you somehow put fundamentals into a chart format) that makes me not want to be in it.. here is the video clip, BBY clip . remember how some people say to focus on stocks where there charts go from lower left to upper right.. well this is the opposite.. you might catch a bottom here or get a quick trade but with so many other stocks actually moving up i would not be messing with this.. focus on the leaders in their segments. mike is doing a risk reversal.. i like risk reversals but prefer to do them on 1. stock i actually want to own if it came to that 2. do risk reversals more near term . this trade and mikes other on-air trades in a google docs spreadsheet
Buy the Jan2013 18/24 risk reversal (sell the 18put, buy the 24 call) for .25 credit
not mentioned in this discussion is that Yes, you get .25 credit.. $25bucks per lot, but its not a free trade..since you are selling that put you have to set aside buying power/margin to buy the stock at near 18 if you still hold that put at opex..so figure about $1800 per lot.. stock might catch a rally and call increases and puts decrease, ie profits to you.. but like scott said, i dont want to sell puts in a name i dont want to own..might work out but im not interested. plus if the stock stays range bound you are committing that $1800 for half a year... if anything id go front month or next month.. and make it a call spread risk reversal.
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A summary and suggestions for improvement of some of the trades as seen on CNBC Options Action
Saturday, June 30, 2012
CLOSING the $SBUX Options Action Trade - Dan
26july - as posted by dan on his site, he closed the spread prior to earnings for a small win, heres his post from riskreversal.com SBUX trade . closed for a .12 profit, coulda woulda shoulda.. would have been good win based on how stock moved on earnings
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29jun - dan entering a put spread on starbucks base on the macro environment on this weeks Options Action, heres the video clip, SBUX clip , dan also features this trade on his website.
buy the Aug 50/45 put spread for .85 cents
dan always seems to misspeak about where the profits are..nerves or something.. but you dont make $4.15 if stock is at 49.15..the SPREAD IS PROFITABLE at 49.15 or lower at opex is the correct description. key point that mike makes is that you do not have to let this go to opex to see the profits, a near term down move will make this profitable..not the full amount of $4.15 of course but might get some 50% or higher returns real quick. normal MO for dan is taking some off when he can get money back and let rest run. all of dans on-air trade in a google docs spreadsheet
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29jun - dan entering a put spread on starbucks base on the macro environment on this weeks Options Action, heres the video clip, SBUX clip , dan also features this trade on his website.
buy the Aug 50/45 put spread for .85 cents
dan always seems to misspeak about where the profits are..nerves or something.. but you dont make $4.15 if stock is at 49.15..the SPREAD IS PROFITABLE at 49.15 or lower at opex is the correct description. key point that mike makes is that you do not have to let this go to opex to see the profits, a near term down move will make this profitable..not the full amount of $4.15 of course but might get some 50% or higher returns real quick. normal MO for dan is taking some off when he can get money back and let rest run. all of dans on-air trade in a google docs spreadsheet
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Sunday, June 24, 2012
CLOSING $GE Options Action trade - Enis
17 aug - no lightning strike to rescue this.. im starting to think Enis is a Roubini clone with the doom all the time.. full lost on this spread with stock near 21 still
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27july - been about a month and this trade has been a turd..almost worthless right now with stock near 21. might as well hold it in case lightning strikes.
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24jun-Enis back on the show this week with a put spread trade for General Electric, here the opening video clip including GE GE clip . Enis lays out his thesis well and notes that since option volitility is low its ok to buy just the long put instead of a put spread. but by making it a put spread the cost of the trade is reduced.
Buy the Aug 19/17 put spread for .30
Enis goes to August on this spread since earnings are on Opex day for july. Enis's other on air trades in a google docs spreadsheet . Dan and enis have been good about posting updates to their on air trades via their website / twitter .
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27july - been about a month and this trade has been a turd..almost worthless right now with stock near 21. might as well hold it in case lightning strikes.
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24jun-Enis back on the show this week with a put spread trade for General Electric, here the opening video clip including GE GE clip . Enis lays out his thesis well and notes that since option volitility is low its ok to buy just the long put instead of a put spread. but by making it a put spread the cost of the trade is reduced.
Buy the Aug 19/17 put spread for .30
Enis goes to August on this spread since earnings are on Opex day for july. Enis's other on air trades in a google docs spreadsheet . Dan and enis have been good about posting updates to their on air trades via their website / twitter .
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Saturday, June 23, 2012
CLOSING the $WMT Options Action Trade - mike
10july - guess mike forgot about this trade he had on air few weeks ago for WMT when he was doing this hit on tonights show on walmart. here tonights segment, tonights WMT segment
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6july - scott answers a viewer email from Arnold about some puts he bought in WMT.. just so happens Arnold bought the same puts Mike did on 22jun show. no cool music, smiling faces and nifty graphics on this one since its a losing trade. no updates from mike khouw of course or the Options action twitter account despite the "constant trade updates" references.. heres the tonights web extra video web extra , scott has a good suggestion for how to at least salvage some of this position by closing the puts and then buying a calender put spread. scott said option is worth 30cents now so will close this trade in the spreadsheet, mikes on-air trades in a google docs spreadsheet
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23jun - mike has a bearish trade on Walmart, heres the video clip, WMT clip . carter worth with his trusty 20year chart also recommends selling. mike lays out his fundatmental case pretty well
Buy the Aug 65 put for .90
Mike comments that if it moves in his favor he will look to "spread it out" , which means selling a lower strike put to essentially leg into a spread. an august options gives him plenty of time for the thesis to play out. thats one option, another it to make this a calender put spread from the get go.. selling the July 65 put for about .32 .. lowers the cost of that long put by one third.. can always "spread it out" if you get a move in your favor then. see all of mikes on-air trade in this google docs spreadsheet
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6july - scott answers a viewer email from Arnold about some puts he bought in WMT.. just so happens Arnold bought the same puts Mike did on 22jun show. no cool music, smiling faces and nifty graphics on this one since its a losing trade. no updates from mike khouw of course or the Options action twitter account despite the "constant trade updates" references.. heres the tonights web extra video web extra , scott has a good suggestion for how to at least salvage some of this position by closing the puts and then buying a calender put spread. scott said option is worth 30cents now so will close this trade in the spreadsheet, mikes on-air trades in a google docs spreadsheet
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23jun - mike has a bearish trade on Walmart, heres the video clip, WMT clip . carter worth with his trusty 20year chart also recommends selling. mike lays out his fundatmental case pretty well
Buy the Aug 65 put for .90
Mike comments that if it moves in his favor he will look to "spread it out" , which means selling a lower strike put to essentially leg into a spread. an august options gives him plenty of time for the thesis to play out. thats one option, another it to make this a calender put spread from the get go.. selling the July 65 put for about .32 .. lowers the cost of that long put by one third.. can always "spread it out" if you get a move in your favor then. see all of mikes on-air trade in this google docs spreadsheet
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CLOSING $ARNA options action trade - scott
17aug - if you are still holding its a max loss.. clearly the trade was for the FDA decision catalyst. like i said below, you had to be really quick on this one, didnt get the pop most people expected. take at least some off the table right away..enough to get your money back if you have multiple lots.. but rules is rules.. do this goes down as a max loss since the often advertised "constant trade updates" still have not kicked in nor did scott make mention of it via twitter
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31july - if you were trying to milk a few more cents out of this spread its worth about 10cents now, down about 90% since entry..once you get the catalyst, take profits quick, on at least some of it
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29 jun - if you followed scott in on this trade and were not able to take profits right after FDA announcment then you are sitting on a 50% paper loss.. sucks to guess the direction right but not get the move you were looking for.. stock as made about a round trip right back to were it was when he put the trade on... this spread is going for about .75 now
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23 jun - whats the deal on tonights show?? scott never has a trade to offer up.. always comments on the VIX or on the other guys trades..maybe its his birthday.. so with the lead in of huge options activity on ARNA, scott has a trade, here is the video clip ARNA clip . an FDA decision is coming soon on their fat boy drug like with VVUS and stock has had a strong past few days.. "taking the stairs up and the elevator down".. i dont have a clue about what FDA will announce so any trade i would put on would be a guess. concur with scott that you should pick a direction, so he is putting on a call spread which is appropriate with huge option IV.
buy the Aug 11/16 call spread for $1.50
good low premium way to take a postion. i like the trade setup but will not be following since its just a guess on what the FDA says. all of scotts on-air trades in a google docs spreadsheet
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31july - if you were trying to milk a few more cents out of this spread its worth about 10cents now, down about 90% since entry..once you get the catalyst, take profits quick, on at least some of it
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29 jun - if you followed scott in on this trade and were not able to take profits right after FDA announcment then you are sitting on a 50% paper loss.. sucks to guess the direction right but not get the move you were looking for.. stock as made about a round trip right back to were it was when he put the trade on... this spread is going for about .75 now
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23 jun - whats the deal on tonights show?? scott never has a trade to offer up.. always comments on the VIX or on the other guys trades..maybe its his birthday.. so with the lead in of huge options activity on ARNA, scott has a trade, here is the video clip ARNA clip . an FDA decision is coming soon on their fat boy drug like with VVUS and stock has had a strong past few days.. "taking the stairs up and the elevator down".. i dont have a clue about what FDA will announce so any trade i would put on would be a guess. concur with scott that you should pick a direction, so he is putting on a call spread which is appropriate with huge option IV.
buy the Aug 11/16 call spread for $1.50
good low premium way to take a postion. i like the trade setup but will not be following since its just a guess on what the FDA says. all of scotts on-air trades in a google docs spreadsheet
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Friday, June 22, 2012
CLOSING the Options Action Web Extra trade - $VVUS - scott
20 july - so the FDA ruling came and went, you had to be quick and get your exit because the price action this week was pretty much what fuckery looks like. if you get the move in your direction from the catalyst its always best to take that profit quickly instead of hanging around for that last 10cents.. so this trade went from big win to max loss all course of 2days.. closing this credit spread at 1.00 near closing time so its about a max loss if you didnt take profits after the FDA ruling
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22jun - scott has the options action web extra today with a trade in response to a viewer mail question on $VVUS, here is the video, web extra video . if you watch the video and note the dates presented in the viewer email, he says that FDA decision is expected to be on 20july which is also opex day. because everyone is waiting for the FDA decision on their fatboy drug, the stock will likely trade in a range till then. scott recommends selling a put spread that is close to at the money,
Sell the July 24/25 put spread for .40 . as he stated, max profit is .40, max loss .60 if closes below 24 on opex. because the "event" will be on last day of opex, there will not appear to be any time decay as with most spreads because the IV will likely increase into the event , offsetting any time decay.. so i would expect the spread to be flat till then. i like his thought process about if its an up move you profit but im not convinced a delay will be profitable.. gut reaction could just as likely be "sell the stock because there is a problem thats why the decision is delayed" thinking.. so i would take a delay as negative for the stock vs scott thinking that pricing gets crushed and stock is flat. You do a 10 lot of this spread you risk $600 to make $400 which is good, but who know what will happen. its essentially a guess.. which is fine, but dont con yourself into believing its a fundamental reason for entering.. you would be guessing on outcome.. and as i always say if you are going to guess, than guess cheap. so i would not take this trade.. too close to ATM for me and $600 is not a cheap guess. i take the flip side.. if im going to guess, do like scott said and pick a direction, and then figure out a cheap low premium way to setup for that.. general rule is if options IV is high, you do a spread..as is the case here.. IV is at 140..thats crazy level..
i also make the assumption that the options market has the move priced pretty accurately so i use that to determine a range. currently pricing in about an 8-9 dollar move, that gets us to 34ish area. so im going to assume that area will get hit on up move. max risk on scotts trade is $600.. lets risk half of that and do a July 30/34/38 call butterfly.. bid /ask are likely wacky because its afterhours..shows .19/.90 .. so generously assume you can get for .75 x4 for $300 debit.. a pin at 34 gets you $1700 profit but an up move into that range will get you at least a double. not knowing anything about this stock and FDA decisions.. such as do they announce at 930am or 405pm.. and after hours announcment does do anything for us. if i was to put this on i would put it on the week of the announcement instead of right now.
second option is to take that timing risk off the table and do a call spread for Aug, but its still a guess.. i dont like either trade nor scotts.. if not in the stock now id sit on sidelines..its called investing not guessing. all of scotts on-air trades Scotts on-air trades in google docs spreadsheet
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22jun - scott has the options action web extra today with a trade in response to a viewer mail question on $VVUS, here is the video, web extra video . if you watch the video and note the dates presented in the viewer email, he says that FDA decision is expected to be on 20july which is also opex day. because everyone is waiting for the FDA decision on their fatboy drug, the stock will likely trade in a range till then. scott recommends selling a put spread that is close to at the money,
Sell the July 24/25 put spread for .40 . as he stated, max profit is .40, max loss .60 if closes below 24 on opex. because the "event" will be on last day of opex, there will not appear to be any time decay as with most spreads because the IV will likely increase into the event , offsetting any time decay.. so i would expect the spread to be flat till then. i like his thought process about if its an up move you profit but im not convinced a delay will be profitable.. gut reaction could just as likely be "sell the stock because there is a problem thats why the decision is delayed" thinking.. so i would take a delay as negative for the stock vs scott thinking that pricing gets crushed and stock is flat. You do a 10 lot of this spread you risk $600 to make $400 which is good, but who know what will happen. its essentially a guess.. which is fine, but dont con yourself into believing its a fundamental reason for entering.. you would be guessing on outcome.. and as i always say if you are going to guess, than guess cheap. so i would not take this trade.. too close to ATM for me and $600 is not a cheap guess. i take the flip side.. if im going to guess, do like scott said and pick a direction, and then figure out a cheap low premium way to setup for that.. general rule is if options IV is high, you do a spread..as is the case here.. IV is at 140..thats crazy level..
i also make the assumption that the options market has the move priced pretty accurately so i use that to determine a range. currently pricing in about an 8-9 dollar move, that gets us to 34ish area. so im going to assume that area will get hit on up move. max risk on scotts trade is $600.. lets risk half of that and do a July 30/34/38 call butterfly.. bid /ask are likely wacky because its afterhours..shows .19/.90 .. so generously assume you can get for .75 x4 for $300 debit.. a pin at 34 gets you $1700 profit but an up move into that range will get you at least a double. not knowing anything about this stock and FDA decisions.. such as do they announce at 930am or 405pm.. and after hours announcment does do anything for us. if i was to put this on i would put it on the week of the announcement instead of right now.
second option is to take that timing risk off the table and do a call spread for Aug, but its still a guess.. i dont like either trade nor scotts.. if not in the stock now id sit on sidelines..its called investing not guessing. all of scotts on-air trades Scotts on-air trades in google docs spreadsheet
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Monday, June 18, 2012
CLOSING the $MSFT Options Action trade - mike
21 sep - this call can be closed for about .15 when i looked at it this afternoon, will be another loss since it was purchased in June for .85.. like i said below, would have sold some front month calls against it to lower the cost basis vs going out so far. see.. the "pro's " dont have a better track record than joe lunchpail retail trader buying naked puts. mike might have done that but we will never know since he doesnt update the trades after blasting them out on air. see all of mikes on-air trades in this google docs spreadsheet
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13aug - been 2months now since this trade was shown on air - if you followed mike in and are still holding its going for about .29 now.. so near 60% loss. still 40days to go till opex. keep your fingers crossed
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jun18- mike does a simple buy call on microsoft for todays options action trade, heres the clip options action
Buy the Sep 31 call for .85
gives himself plenty of time to let this trade work, i dont follow the stock but whenever i see a trade going that far out, my first thought is make it a calender spread instead unless you are looking for a near term pop to take profits, the july 31 is going for about .42.. so selling this also chops your cost of the Sep call in half.. then can do it again for aug opex.. depends on your thesis and how long you want to hold this trade. might look at this tomorrow and price it out using the Jan2012 31 long call as basis.. lots of months till then to sell the monthly short call against it. might add that to the paper trade portfolio for shits and grins. heres mikes on air trades in a spreadsheet mikes on air trades
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13aug - been 2months now since this trade was shown on air - if you followed mike in and are still holding its going for about .29 now.. so near 60% loss. still 40days to go till opex. keep your fingers crossed
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jun18- mike does a simple buy call on microsoft for todays options action trade, heres the clip options action
Buy the Sep 31 call for .85
gives himself plenty of time to let this trade work, i dont follow the stock but whenever i see a trade going that far out, my first thought is make it a calender spread instead unless you are looking for a near term pop to take profits, the july 31 is going for about .42.. so selling this also chops your cost of the Sep call in half.. then can do it again for aug opex.. depends on your thesis and how long you want to hold this trade. might look at this tomorrow and price it out using the Jan2012 31 long call as basis.. lots of months till then to sell the monthly short call against it. might add that to the paper trade portfolio for shits and grins. heres mikes on air trades in a spreadsheet mikes on air trades
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Sunday, June 17, 2012
CLOSING the $NKE Options Action Trade - dan
30jun - options action revists this trade as i expected.. revisting losing trades is not good for ratings, heres the video NKE clip . good trade by dan.. what you didnt see in the clip was scott mentioning that he had NKE as a Fast Money Trade of the Day from $107
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29jun - per dans tweet and website posting, dan is taking profits on the remaining lots from the original trade..closing at $3.30 , nice winner.
28jun - per dans tweet and website posting, taking profits on half his original block at $2.17
21 jun - per dans tweet and website, he is taking profits on the block he just added yesterday, heres his site posting Risk reversal dans on air trades in a google docs spreadsheet . still appears to be holding the original block
Sell to close the July97.50/92.50 put spread at 1.60
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20 jun - per dans tweet and website he is adding to this trade he featured on air
Buy the July97.50/92.50 put spread for 1.00
i updated the spreadsheet to show his add
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17jun -dan has a bearish trade on Nike on the show this week, here is the clip the clip . noted that scott did not mention he went long NKE via the Fast money trade of the day just 4 days prior, here is that clip that clip
Buy the July 97.50/92.50 put spread for $1.25
ok trade if you are bearish, dans MO previously has been to take profits on some if it moves his way and let the rest run so not likely it will be held till opex. dans on air trade in a google docs spreadsheet
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29jun - per dans tweet and website posting, dan is taking profits on the remaining lots from the original trade..closing at $3.30 , nice winner.
28jun - per dans tweet and website posting, taking profits on half his original block at $2.17
21 jun - per dans tweet and website, he is taking profits on the block he just added yesterday, heres his site posting Risk reversal dans on air trades in a google docs spreadsheet . still appears to be holding the original block
Sell to close the July97.50/92.50 put spread at 1.60
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20 jun - per dans tweet and website he is adding to this trade he featured on air
Buy the July97.50/92.50 put spread for 1.00
i updated the spreadsheet to show his add
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17jun -dan has a bearish trade on Nike on the show this week, here is the clip the clip . noted that scott did not mention he went long NKE via the Fast money trade of the day just 4 days prior, here is that clip that clip
Buy the July 97.50/92.50 put spread for $1.25
ok trade if you are bearish, dans MO previously has been to take profits on some if it moves his way and let the rest run so not likely it will be held till opex. dans on air trade in a google docs spreadsheet
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CLOSING $FDX Options Action trade - mike
17aug - still waiting on those "constant trade updates" from cnbcoptions on twitter? keep waiting. and while you are doing that this trade will be a max loss if you held the entire time to opex today with the stock near 90. if you bought as an earnings catalyst you should have either booked profits right after or sold a higher strike put (spread it out)
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30july - no dancing bears or surfing goats on Options action on this trade either, this options now going for about $1.00 with 3weeks till opex and the stock near 90.75, so you are down about 60% if you are still holding...maybe those constant-trade-updates that cnbc advertises will kick in soon.
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19jun - just checked to see how this trade is doing, didnt realize earnings were so soon. good example of being correct on direction hence the $3 move today but the IV crush kills what at first glance seemed like a good win...just checked and that option for 2.50 is now worth 2.80..not exactly a big win after seeing that move this morning. might look to sell the aug 95's against them for 1.65ish to lock some of the move in if you followed.
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17jun- mike has a trade on Fed-ex on this weeks show, spends a good deal of time laying out the fundamental case for this. and of course it wouldnt be a show without the ol Carter Worth 15year chart, heres the clip video
Buy the Aug 92.50 call for $2.50
scott notes that it will take a big move for this options to be profitable at opex, i think thats some captain obvious shit, but if stock pops 2-3 bucks on some news then so will this option. im sure most will not be holding it till opex. mikes on-air trades in a google docs spreadsheet
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30july - no dancing bears or surfing goats on Options action on this trade either, this options now going for about $1.00 with 3weeks till opex and the stock near 90.75, so you are down about 60% if you are still holding...maybe those constant-trade-updates that cnbc advertises will kick in soon.
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19jun - just checked to see how this trade is doing, didnt realize earnings were so soon. good example of being correct on direction hence the $3 move today but the IV crush kills what at first glance seemed like a good win...just checked and that option for 2.50 is now worth 2.80..not exactly a big win after seeing that move this morning. might look to sell the aug 95's against them for 1.65ish to lock some of the move in if you followed.
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17jun- mike has a trade on Fed-ex on this weeks show, spends a good deal of time laying out the fundamental case for this. and of course it wouldnt be a show without the ol Carter Worth 15year chart, heres the clip video
Buy the Aug 92.50 call for $2.50
scott notes that it will take a big move for this options to be profitable at opex, i think thats some captain obvious shit, but if stock pops 2-3 bucks on some news then so will this option. im sure most will not be holding it till opex. mikes on-air trades in a google docs spreadsheet
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Thursday, June 14, 2012
CLOSING the $AAPL Options Action trade - mike
20 july - big move in AAPL so trade likely was a win at some point . but to be consistent at time of this writing this call is at $7.50.. so its a loss..dont like it? then maybe Options Action / mike khouw should be transparent instead of having surfing goats on air
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17july - this would be one of those trades that optionsaction should have revisited, ie "constant trade updates" .. has gone from 50% paper loss to a possible double in last 3weeks..so what has mike done since earnings will not be this month per his thesis..sold for profit, solf for loss, spread it out? only the shadow knows.
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27 jun - not looking too good right now, your at a 50% paper loss if you followed mike into this trade.. earnings date still shows 24july unconfirmed when i checked briefing . com last. so this option will not capture that unless it changes
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14jun - mike has a trade on AAPL on tonights show, here is the video, video .
Buy the July 600 call for $8.75
so listening to the video mike mentions that this option will capture earnings..maybe.. last time i checked the earnings date for apple was before opex BUT still "unconfirmed" according to briefing.com .. he mentions what i will suggest as alternative trade..he mentions he ususually does farther dated calls and sells shorter dated..ie calenders.. $875 per contract is pretty steep. so if you are going to be buying that call to hold thru earnings, if it is before opex, then i would sell the weekly 600 calls against them, doing that every week.. next weeks 600 traded up to about $1.50 today... do this every week up until earnings week and you can chop the cost of that July 600 call by 25-50%. this call will likely make money as AAPL whips around until them if you are looking to scalp a few hundred here and there.. not my still.. i am actually short those july 600calls with some leaps. just a note: if you are using trademonster to determine your earnings dates, they are notoriously incorrect so use a different source. here are all of mikes on-air trades in a google docs spreadsheet
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17july - this would be one of those trades that optionsaction should have revisited, ie "constant trade updates" .. has gone from 50% paper loss to a possible double in last 3weeks..so what has mike done since earnings will not be this month per his thesis..sold for profit, solf for loss, spread it out? only the shadow knows.
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27 jun - not looking too good right now, your at a 50% paper loss if you followed mike into this trade.. earnings date still shows 24july unconfirmed when i checked briefing . com last. so this option will not capture that unless it changes
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14jun - mike has a trade on AAPL on tonights show, here is the video, video .
Buy the July 600 call for $8.75
so listening to the video mike mentions that this option will capture earnings..maybe.. last time i checked the earnings date for apple was before opex BUT still "unconfirmed" according to briefing.com .. he mentions what i will suggest as alternative trade..he mentions he ususually does farther dated calls and sells shorter dated..ie calenders.. $875 per contract is pretty steep. so if you are going to be buying that call to hold thru earnings, if it is before opex, then i would sell the weekly 600 calls against them, doing that every week.. next weeks 600 traded up to about $1.50 today... do this every week up until earnings week and you can chop the cost of that July 600 call by 25-50%. this call will likely make money as AAPL whips around until them if you are looking to scalp a few hundred here and there.. not my still.. i am actually short those july 600calls with some leaps. just a note: if you are using trademonster to determine your earnings dates, they are notoriously incorrect so use a different source. here are all of mikes on-air trades in a google docs spreadsheet
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Wednesday, June 13, 2012
CLOSING the Options Action trade $JNJ - mike
20july - since i carry the losses to opex because of lack of followups i have to as well for the random winner from mike.. this is about a six banger when closing today.. these calls going for about $3.50 from a .65 entry. never know what happened though..took half profits lower? spread it out? be better use of airtime to answer questions like that than show bears wrestling in a front yard...remember that segment?
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28jun- got yourself about at triple if you are still in this trade. calls are going for 1.85 now..mikes thesis played out.. i would be taking profits if not all then at least enough lots to get my initial money back. im sure since its a nice winner, optionsaction will be revisiting it with some happy music/cool graphics showing mikes cheesy grin in slow motion..blind squirrel grin is more appropriate.
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6/13 -mike has the options action trade tonight with JNJ, heres the video the video . mike does the opposite of what ive come to expect, that is going several months out , this time does a July call purchase
Buy the July 65 call at .65
like he said in the clip, stock has been dead money for a while. had massive volume today and big move. he may make money on this but stocks that trade in just a $5 range for the last 12months do not get me interested. too many others that actually move to trade out there to tie up capital in this.
mikes on air trades in a google docs spreadsheet
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28jun- got yourself about at triple if you are still in this trade. calls are going for 1.85 now..mikes thesis played out.. i would be taking profits if not all then at least enough lots to get my initial money back. im sure since its a nice winner, optionsaction will be revisiting it with some happy music/cool graphics showing mikes cheesy grin in slow motion..blind squirrel grin is more appropriate.
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6/13 -mike has the options action trade tonight with JNJ, heres the video the video . mike does the opposite of what ive come to expect, that is going several months out , this time does a July call purchase
Buy the July 65 call at .65
like he said in the clip, stock has been dead money for a while. had massive volume today and big move. he may make money on this but stocks that trade in just a $5 range for the last 12months do not get me interested. too many others that actually move to trade out there to tie up capital in this.
mikes on air trades in a google docs spreadsheet
Tuesday, June 12, 2012
CLOSING the Options Action Trade - $UAL - scott
20 july - covered call worked as designed, stock closing under 22 today and you get to keep the entire covered call premium..lowering your cost base going forward. you can see how quickly things can change.. monday youre thinking your shares are getting called away, then 4down days in a row your keeping the shares and calls expiring at max profit.
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29jun - with stock at 24ish this trade on track to be a winner..anything above 22 at opex will be max profit. dont see this trade too often but can be really juicy of you pick the right stocks and you are ok with your shares getting called away every month.
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12 jun - scott hitting the fast money options action desk again tonight with a not very common trade, selling a covered call that is in the money, here is video video . he explains is well.. this is essentially if you are long the stock and are ok getting your stock called away a bit higher, this is in order to get some of your money back if you are down and/or give you better downside hedge if it does not close above the strike price at opex. would not be in the airline space at all.. no way no how.
Sell the July 22 covered call at $1.60
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all of scotts on-air trade in a google docs spreadsheet
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29jun - with stock at 24ish this trade on track to be a winner..anything above 22 at opex will be max profit. dont see this trade too often but can be really juicy of you pick the right stocks and you are ok with your shares getting called away every month.
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12 jun - scott hitting the fast money options action desk again tonight with a not very common trade, selling a covered call that is in the money, here is video video . he explains is well.. this is essentially if you are long the stock and are ok getting your stock called away a bit higher, this is in order to get some of your money back if you are down and/or give you better downside hedge if it does not close above the strike price at opex. would not be in the airline space at all.. no way no how.
Sell the July 22 covered call at $1.60
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all of scotts on-air trade in a google docs spreadsheet
Monday, June 11, 2012
CLOSING Options Action trade $HCA - scott
20 july - read what i wrote below.. if for some reason you followed scotts trade and didnt take some profits along the way after supreme court ruling... this spread is going for .55 this afternoon..so you had a good win initially and now a loss if you held.. since no updates from scott / cnbc on this i have to take it at .55 and a loss in the spreadsheet.
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29jun - and we have a winner, with stock at 31ish, spread is going for about 2.50 after big move from supreme court decision.. if you followed you should be taking some profits..the catalyst has come and gone..at least sell enough to get original capital back if you are going to try to milk the rest of it.
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11jun - on tonights options action trade, scott has a call spread for HCA, here is the video clip video clip . cant really get too interested in a stock that has traded in a 2-3 dollar range for last 6 months, and have no clue on what will happen with obamacare. but i like scotts trade.. defines the risk at least
Buy the July 27/30 call spread for .90
all of scotts on-air trades in a google docs spreadsheet
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29jun - and we have a winner, with stock at 31ish, spread is going for about 2.50 after big move from supreme court decision.. if you followed you should be taking some profits..the catalyst has come and gone..at least sell enough to get original capital back if you are going to try to milk the rest of it.
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11jun - on tonights options action trade, scott has a call spread for HCA, here is the video clip video clip . cant really get too interested in a stock that has traded in a 2-3 dollar range for last 6 months, and have no clue on what will happen with obamacare. but i like scotts trade.. defines the risk at least
Buy the July 27/30 call spread for .90
all of scotts on-air trades in a google docs spreadsheet
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Friday, June 8, 2012
CLOSING the $LNKD Options Action trade - Enis
2 Aug - per a tweet and posting on the Risk Reversal website, LNKD post . i will close this spread at $1.60 with stock near 93... enis has another trade only featured on the website that he is closing for a loss ahead of earnings and he makes reference to this one so i will assume the same thesis for closing it... never know what earnings will bring but he is using a risk reward so no fault there.. about .70 loss per lot. see this trade and all of Enis's on-air trades here google docs spreadsheet
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27july - not looking good so far with stock above 100 today, still some hope on earnings selloff.. this spread going for about .60 today. earnings next week i believe, check back after that.
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8jun - Enis has a bearish trade on LNKD on show tonight, here is the clip LNKD clip
Buy the Aug 80/70 put spread for $2.35
ok trade if you have a bearish thesis. Enis mentioned earnings are in august, so his max risk is $2.35... i would look at making this a put calender instead..buying the aug80, and selling the july80 for about $2.70.. paying a bit more. if the july put expires worthless you can then own the aug 80 put outright, and call "spread it out" by selling a lower strike put then, reducing the cost of your put spread ideally below the 2.35 of enis's trade. just a thought, have not run the numbers in Trademonsters analysis tab to see if it would make sense. if stock takes a quick drop, Enis's trade will probably see more profits right away.
Enis's on air trades in a google docs spreadsheet
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27july - not looking good so far with stock above 100 today, still some hope on earnings selloff.. this spread going for about .60 today. earnings next week i believe, check back after that.
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8jun - Enis has a bearish trade on LNKD on show tonight, here is the clip LNKD clip
Buy the Aug 80/70 put spread for $2.35
ok trade if you have a bearish thesis. Enis mentioned earnings are in august, so his max risk is $2.35... i would look at making this a put calender instead..buying the aug80, and selling the july80 for about $2.70.. paying a bit more. if the july put expires worthless you can then own the aug 80 put outright, and call "spread it out" by selling a lower strike put then, reducing the cost of your put spread ideally below the 2.35 of enis's trade. just a thought, have not run the numbers in Trademonsters analysis tab to see if it would make sense. if stock takes a quick drop, Enis's trade will probably see more profits right away.
Enis's on air trades in a google docs spreadsheet
click to follow --> https://twitter.com/Mark_Lexus for more free trades/ setups and charts
CLOSING $CAT Options Action trade - Mike
17 aug - another brick.. this option trade will expire at max loss as well.. didnt get any pop since presenting trade on-air and stock being under 90 today.
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30 july - 3weeks to go till Aug opex and this trade is sitting at near a 75% loss if you are still holding, with these calls going for about 50cents and the stock at 85ish. stock near the same price as when trade initiated.
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8 Jun - on tonights Options Action mike has a trade on CAT, here is the clip the clip . the rest of the desk makes a good case for the reasons you might not do this trade.
Buy the Aug 90 call for $3.65 ($365 per lot)
Mike has a thesis that if it rebounds it will do so sharply allowing this call to profit quickly, also mentioned at the end of clip that he may leg into a call spread (spreading it out) if up move comes. Appreciate Enis being transparent and mentioning that he has a put spread on , since it was previously featured on a webextra. mike is at least giving himself some time for this call to work by going out to august.
Mikes on - air trades in google docs spreadsheet
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30 july - 3weeks to go till Aug opex and this trade is sitting at near a 75% loss if you are still holding, with these calls going for about 50cents and the stock at 85ish. stock near the same price as when trade initiated.
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8 Jun - on tonights Options Action mike has a trade on CAT, here is the clip the clip . the rest of the desk makes a good case for the reasons you might not do this trade.
Buy the Aug 90 call for $3.65 ($365 per lot)
Mike has a thesis that if it rebounds it will do so sharply allowing this call to profit quickly, also mentioned at the end of clip that he may leg into a call spread (spreading it out) if up move comes. Appreciate Enis being transparent and mentioning that he has a put spread on , since it was previously featured on a webextra. mike is at least giving himself some time for this call to work by going out to august.
Mikes on - air trades in google docs spreadsheet
Thursday, June 7, 2012
CLOSING the 6/7 Options Action Trade - $MCD - scott
20 july - was touch and go there at the beginning but if you stuck it out this put sale expired today at max profit. if you can keep the attitude of "i wouldnt mind owning the stock if it goes lower" when it ACTUALLY goes lower then selling puts is almost always a win-win strategy.
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29jun - was kind of scary for a bit there, but youre up about 40% if you are still holding this..Puts going for .85ish now with stock near 88.50. like i said below, i like put sales but prefer to do them with a bigger return,,ie higher IV stocks.
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7 jun - scott has a trade on MCD on tonights Options action segment.
Sell the July 87.50 put for $1.30
Selling puts is good way to enter into stocks at a lower cost basis. not mentioned is that you need to set aside enough buying power / margin to be able to actually buy the stock at $87.50 if you get "put the stock" at opex.. so figure $8750 for each put you sell.. so if that is a good enough of a return till july opex...earning $130 on $8750 then go for it.. seems like a bit low vs some other strategies and other stocks.. also if the stock drops that low, people always seem to change their tune and dont want to own the stock at that level.
if you have a bullish thesis till july opex, i would make this a risk reversal instead of just a put sale.. with same margin needed.. such as sell the 87.50 put and buy the july 90call.. for about zero cost.
scott's on-air trades in a google docs spreadsheet
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29jun - was kind of scary for a bit there, but youre up about 40% if you are still holding this..Puts going for .85ish now with stock near 88.50. like i said below, i like put sales but prefer to do them with a bigger return,,ie higher IV stocks.
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7 jun - scott has a trade on MCD on tonights Options action segment.
Sell the July 87.50 put for $1.30
Selling puts is good way to enter into stocks at a lower cost basis. not mentioned is that you need to set aside enough buying power / margin to be able to actually buy the stock at $87.50 if you get "put the stock" at opex.. so figure $8750 for each put you sell.. so if that is a good enough of a return till july opex...earning $130 on $8750 then go for it.. seems like a bit low vs some other strategies and other stocks.. also if the stock drops that low, people always seem to change their tune and dont want to own the stock at that level.
if you have a bullish thesis till july opex, i would make this a risk reversal instead of just a put sale.. with same margin needed.. such as sell the 87.50 put and buy the july 90call.. for about zero cost.
scott's on-air trades in a google docs spreadsheet
Wednesday, June 6, 2012
CLOSING the $UNH Options Action trade - mike
20 sep - going to close out this trade. if you followed and took no action since this aired in June will be another full loss. my usual comment is that if you go out that far to keep trying to sell front month calls against it to lower your cost basis. stock down a few bucks since trade entry. see all of mike khouws on-air trades in this google docs spreadsheet
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8aug - been 2months since this trade was shown on-air and if you followed and are still holding the SEP call, its worth about 10cents..so 85% loss if you did not sell an Aug call against it to roll the calender trade. still 5weeks to go for SEP opex but not looking good
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6jun - on show tonight mike discusses a calender spread for UNH , there the video video clip doesnt explain the trade very much, but its a call calender
Buy the July / September 60 call calender (buy the Sep, sell the july) for .85
cant say i follow the stock or the sector so dont have much to say about it.. do like the trade setup, would look to also sell an Aug 60 call after July Opex to reduce the premium more depending on where stock is then.
mikes on-air trades in a google docs spreadsheet
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8aug - been 2months since this trade was shown on-air and if you followed and are still holding the SEP call, its worth about 10cents..so 85% loss if you did not sell an Aug call against it to roll the calender trade. still 5weeks to go for SEP opex but not looking good
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6jun - on show tonight mike discusses a calender spread for UNH , there the video video clip doesnt explain the trade very much, but its a call calender
Buy the July / September 60 call calender (buy the Sep, sell the july) for .85
cant say i follow the stock or the sector so dont have much to say about it.. do like the trade setup, would look to also sell an Aug 60 call after July Opex to reduce the premium more depending on where stock is then.
mikes on-air trades in a google docs spreadsheet
Tuesday, June 5, 2012
CLOSING the Options Action trade - $LMT - mike
20 SEP - pretty skillful job picking the exact bottom for buying a put, this trade will be another max loss if you followed and took no action along the way. stock is near 91 now. no surfing dog, wrestling bears, or giant crab sandwich videos to go with this one.(if you watch the show you will know what that means) see all of mikes on-air trades in this google docs spreadsheet
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7aug - ouch!! this Put is worth about 10cents so you are down 95% if you followed this recommendation and are still holding.. pretty much nailed the bottom on this call. still 5+ weeks to SEP opex but not looking good so far. i can see why the options action guys have stopped giving trade recommendations on their Fast Money hits.
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5jun - on tonights Options Action segment , mike has a trade for LMT, as usual goes way out in time.. thus allowing 3-4 months of not revisting the trade im sure.
Buy the Sep 75 Put for 2.30
Brian calls him out mentioning a put spread instead, mike recommends that if trade moves in your favor to leg into a put spread.. sure that works, but im in the camp of not trying to be too cute with the trades, i would rather not commit the capital upfront so i would put on a put spread from get go. My alternative to this if you were committed to that 75 level would be to reduce the cost of the Put by making this a series of calender Put spreads.. sell the July 75 put for .75 as well.. then doing it again based on strikes in August... $2.30 is steep for a directional bet... $2300 if you do a 10lot so id look for ways to reduce that premium outlay
google docs spreadsheet of MIkes On-air trades
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7aug - ouch!! this Put is worth about 10cents so you are down 95% if you followed this recommendation and are still holding.. pretty much nailed the bottom on this call. still 5+ weeks to SEP opex but not looking good so far. i can see why the options action guys have stopped giving trade recommendations on their Fast Money hits.
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5jun - on tonights Options Action segment , mike has a trade for LMT, as usual goes way out in time.. thus allowing 3-4 months of not revisting the trade im sure.
Buy the Sep 75 Put for 2.30
Brian calls him out mentioning a put spread instead, mike recommends that if trade moves in your favor to leg into a put spread.. sure that works, but im in the camp of not trying to be too cute with the trades, i would rather not commit the capital upfront so i would put on a put spread from get go. My alternative to this if you were committed to that 75 level would be to reduce the cost of the Put by making this a series of calender Put spreads.. sell the July 75 put for .75 as well.. then doing it again based on strikes in August... $2.30 is steep for a directional bet... $2300 if you do a 10lot so id look for ways to reduce that premium outlay
google docs spreadsheet of MIkes On-air trades
Monday, June 4, 2012
CLOSING THE $YUM OptionsAction trade - scott
21 oct - going to be a max loss on this trade if you followed in and held, never really did get close to being profitable. would have needed to be under 60 at opex to get close to breakeven.
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19 sep - been 3 months now and one month to go till opex.. if you followed scott into this trade and are still holding you are down about 90% and the stock is up a few bucks since entry also.
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4 jun - scott has a trade on YUM on tonights show with a bearish thesis.. has a put spread. here is the clip tonights trade
buy the Oct 62.50 / 50 put spread for $3.30 ($330 per spread)
i like the mechanics of the trade. although i dont follow the stock myself.. has a 3 to 1 payout ratio, defines his risk and gives himself plenty of time for it to work.. no reason you have to hold it till october though, if thesis is correct and stock continues down, this spread will increase in value (profit)... so consider taking some profits along the way..maybe selling a few lots along the way to lock in some profits. looking at chart, stock had some nasty last 2 days thats for sure.
google docs spreadsheet of all of scotts on-air trades
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19 sep - been 3 months now and one month to go till opex.. if you followed scott into this trade and are still holding you are down about 90% and the stock is up a few bucks since entry also.
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4 jun - scott has a trade on YUM on tonights show with a bearish thesis.. has a put spread. here is the clip tonights trade
buy the Oct 62.50 / 50 put spread for $3.30 ($330 per spread)
i like the mechanics of the trade. although i dont follow the stock myself.. has a 3 to 1 payout ratio, defines his risk and gives himself plenty of time for it to work.. no reason you have to hold it till october though, if thesis is correct and stock continues down, this spread will increase in value (profit)... so consider taking some profits along the way..maybe selling a few lots along the way to lock in some profits. looking at chart, stock had some nasty last 2 days thats for sure.
google docs spreadsheet of all of scotts on-air trades
Sunday, June 3, 2012
CLOSING $FB Options Action trade - Dan
17 aug - we all know where facebook is at now because cnbc tells us everyday.. i still like this trade, ratio spreads are great at getting some of a loss back.. thing about ratios is that you do not have to just let is sit there if you see it will be out of the money.. you can close it and roll it down and try to catch that bounce lower.. surprised dan did not do this. still would not have gone so far out.. regardless this will be marked down as a max loss despite liking the setup.
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22jun - options action revisited this Facebook trade on show,heres the clip facebook clip the most agrevating segment of the show for me. same comments as i had below..the overdramatic, "your shares could get called away, bye bye profits" crap. didnt they review the thesis as to why dan entered this trade..its essentially a trade repair because you got your precious 1000 shares from the IPO at 38 and have a paper loss. you see how slick they are and try to fool the viewers with the stats. dan put this trade on with stock just under 30, so graphic today shows stock is up "only" 20%..so on your 1000shares your up about $3000 from entry. then they show this ratio spread is up 400%..yeah sure..you put on a trade repair for 10cents and now its 40cents..so you are up $300 out of a max $4000 if pins at 34 in aug. if you are putting on ratio spreads without underlying stock/leaps you are a moron and will soon be parted from your money. again, wapner misleading about the profit potential "if stock can settle under 34 then dan can make an additional 3.50... some viewers will take that as ANYWHERE under 34 and you can make 3.50 more..nope..that max profit is at a 34 pin. tricky tricky cnbc. scott adds his usual useless comments "you have to watch where you are with the stock?" come on, thats it, thats your expert on-air advice?? note mikes comments "you difenately need to let this thing go, it takes a while to maximize their value, no question about it".. ok good advice..ratios only get near max profit near opex..thats why i only do front month ratios vs having to wait 3months to get money back. Enis concurs to leave it on. scott is way off base.. "the goal was to get out of facebook" WTF is that? wrong, the goal is to get your money back. he says "you have made a bunch of your money back, dont be a pig"..really.. that 30cents the trade as appreciated? that bunch? ok. so we dont want the facts getting in the way of some air time.. you got shares at IPO for 38, it dropped big, was at 29ish at time of trade, now its at 33 and you made .30cents on the ratio..yep.. thats a sweet trade..getting out of facebook with $5000 loss vs hanging tight and potentially getting more of that back as ratio moves in your favor..really poor advice. no wonder his track record is poor. but wait, im not done yet, then Mike says this crazy shit in the "final trade" segment, final trade . "i think you take the trade off if the stock reverses", just 5minutes prior mike said to leave it on because it takes time to maximize profits" , so if stock pulls back some what does that have to do with a ratio spread that doesnt get really profitable till august? defeats the whole point of buying a ratio spread... really terrible segments from mike and scott today. not helpful at all to inexperienced viewers.
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31may - dan has a trade repair on the show if you are long Facebook, here is the video clip..Facebook comments start about halfway thru video clip.. i had a similar suggestion few days prior Mark's Facebook Suggestion .
buy the Aug 30/34 call ratio spread (buy one 30, sell two 34's) for .10 per 1x2
the thesis is you are long the stock from higher. not entirely accurate the way dan phrased it in video that "if stock is above 30.10, I can make up to $3.90"..thats not accurate. more accurate phrase would be "this ratio spread starts to make money above 30.10". You only make that $3.90 profit if stock pins at 34 at opex, from 34 to 38 the profit starts to trail off. I'm sure some newbies thought, sweet, i will make $3.90 if its above 30.10.
Also overemphasized the "stock could get called away" part of this. very overdramatic. while technically correct, you could have your stock get called away at 34 IF YOU DO NOTHING AT OPEX.. got that part??? to not get called away, you can take some action.. such as take profits on the ratio spread, roll it to the next month, close it and sell short calls the next month... several things you can do..you dont have to just sit there like a dummy with stock at 34.50 on last day of opex, biting your fingernails hoping it drops below 34 to keep your stock.
so if stock pins at 38 on opex..your stock has recovered all the way back to the IPO price and the ratio is worth zero.. so you could close out the ratio near zero..no harm no foul, and put on new trade for next month.
not mentioned is that this ratio spread will not realize the full profits until right near the opex. I like the concept of the trade but i would do my suggested trade instead which puts on a similar ratio spread but for July first
Dans on-air trades in a google docs spreadsheet
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22jun - options action revisited this Facebook trade on show,heres the clip facebook clip the most agrevating segment of the show for me. same comments as i had below..the overdramatic, "your shares could get called away, bye bye profits" crap. didnt they review the thesis as to why dan entered this trade..its essentially a trade repair because you got your precious 1000 shares from the IPO at 38 and have a paper loss. you see how slick they are and try to fool the viewers with the stats. dan put this trade on with stock just under 30, so graphic today shows stock is up "only" 20%..so on your 1000shares your up about $3000 from entry. then they show this ratio spread is up 400%..yeah sure..you put on a trade repair for 10cents and now its 40cents..so you are up $300 out of a max $4000 if pins at 34 in aug. if you are putting on ratio spreads without underlying stock/leaps you are a moron and will soon be parted from your money. again, wapner misleading about the profit potential "if stock can settle under 34 then dan can make an additional 3.50... some viewers will take that as ANYWHERE under 34 and you can make 3.50 more..nope..that max profit is at a 34 pin. tricky tricky cnbc. scott adds his usual useless comments "you have to watch where you are with the stock?" come on, thats it, thats your expert on-air advice?? note mikes comments "you difenately need to let this thing go, it takes a while to maximize their value, no question about it".. ok good advice..ratios only get near max profit near opex..thats why i only do front month ratios vs having to wait 3months to get money back. Enis concurs to leave it on. scott is way off base.. "the goal was to get out of facebook" WTF is that? wrong, the goal is to get your money back. he says "you have made a bunch of your money back, dont be a pig"..really.. that 30cents the trade as appreciated? that bunch? ok. so we dont want the facts getting in the way of some air time.. you got shares at IPO for 38, it dropped big, was at 29ish at time of trade, now its at 33 and you made .30cents on the ratio..yep.. thats a sweet trade..getting out of facebook with $5000 loss vs hanging tight and potentially getting more of that back as ratio moves in your favor..really poor advice. no wonder his track record is poor. but wait, im not done yet, then Mike says this crazy shit in the "final trade" segment, final trade . "i think you take the trade off if the stock reverses", just 5minutes prior mike said to leave it on because it takes time to maximize profits" , so if stock pulls back some what does that have to do with a ratio spread that doesnt get really profitable till august? defeats the whole point of buying a ratio spread... really terrible segments from mike and scott today. not helpful at all to inexperienced viewers.
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31may - dan has a trade repair on the show if you are long Facebook, here is the video clip..Facebook comments start about halfway thru video clip.. i had a similar suggestion few days prior Mark's Facebook Suggestion .
buy the Aug 30/34 call ratio spread (buy one 30, sell two 34's) for .10 per 1x2
the thesis is you are long the stock from higher. not entirely accurate the way dan phrased it in video that "if stock is above 30.10, I can make up to $3.90"..thats not accurate. more accurate phrase would be "this ratio spread starts to make money above 30.10". You only make that $3.90 profit if stock pins at 34 at opex, from 34 to 38 the profit starts to trail off. I'm sure some newbies thought, sweet, i will make $3.90 if its above 30.10.
Also overemphasized the "stock could get called away" part of this. very overdramatic. while technically correct, you could have your stock get called away at 34 IF YOU DO NOTHING AT OPEX.. got that part??? to not get called away, you can take some action.. such as take profits on the ratio spread, roll it to the next month, close it and sell short calls the next month... several things you can do..you dont have to just sit there like a dummy with stock at 34.50 on last day of opex, biting your fingernails hoping it drops below 34 to keep your stock.
so if stock pins at 38 on opex..your stock has recovered all the way back to the IPO price and the ratio is worth zero.. so you could close out the ratio near zero..no harm no foul, and put on new trade for next month.
not mentioned is that this ratio spread will not realize the full profits until right near the opex. I like the concept of the trade but i would do my suggested trade instead which puts on a similar ratio spread but for July first
Dans on-air trades in a google docs spreadsheet
Friday, June 1, 2012
CLOSING the $GLD Options Action trade - mike
7/20 gold bounced around a bit since this trade was shown on air, but without the constant trade updates as advertised on cnbc, the trade is a total loss if you are holding till today with GLD trading t 154 ish. hope you took some action along the way.
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6/28 - youre up about 20% if you are still holding this with the puts going for near $4.00 now.. might look to do what mike said in video clip to "spread it out" ..as in sell a lower strike put to lock in some gains or at least reduce your risk thus making it a put spread.
click-->https://twitter.com/Mark_Lexus to follow on twitter
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6/1 - mike has a trade on GLD with a near term bearish thesis. here is the video options action
Buy the July 153 put for $3.25 ($325 per lot)
important point to note in his comments is that if GLD moves down to look to "spread it out" which means your Put has increased in value (profit) so you can sell a lower strike Put to lock in the gain.. it creates a Put spread now. thesis makes sense but i can tell you which way gold is going like the next person. dont know. but its a good time to try a bearish play since GLD is right up against the 50day moving average.
google docs spreadsheet for all of MIkes On-air trades
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6/28 - youre up about 20% if you are still holding this with the puts going for near $4.00 now.. might look to do what mike said in video clip to "spread it out" ..as in sell a lower strike put to lock in some gains or at least reduce your risk thus making it a put spread.
click-->https://twitter.com/Mark_Lexus to follow on twitter
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
6/1 - mike has a trade on GLD with a near term bearish thesis. here is the video options action
Buy the July 153 put for $3.25 ($325 per lot)
important point to note in his comments is that if GLD moves down to look to "spread it out" which means your Put has increased in value (profit) so you can sell a lower strike Put to lock in the gain.. it creates a Put spread now. thesis makes sense but i can tell you which way gold is going like the next person. dont know. but its a good time to try a bearish play since GLD is right up against the 50day moving average.
google docs spreadsheet for all of MIkes On-air trades
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