Friday, March 30, 2012

CLOSING the $TJX trade from Options Action + comments / chart

20july no magic turnaround this week to salvage this, total loss. stair stepped its way up since the trade got put on in march.




16july - with just few day to go and stock at 45ish..this trade will be a total loss if you followed mike into it.

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25jun - about a month to go till opex and no "constant trade updates" from Options Action as advertised.. if you followed mike khouw into this trade in march, its sitting near max loss with few weeks to go. mikes on air trades in a google docs spreadsheet


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14may - although have not seen anything on-air/twitter on this trade, im going to add a few comments since i came across it updated my spreadsheet. with stock near $40 now, my alternative trade is at bottom..again i would sell a front month put against it..there is still 20-30cent left on May 37.50 puts...would lower your cost basis on the july Put by 20% at least..and then again for June after this weeks opex.

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mar30.mike khouw had a short thesis on TJX along with the always somewhat annoyed by the verbal horseplay carter worth. his trade was:

Buy the July 37.50 put for about $1.00

Again i dont follow this stock and generally dont follow retailers. I would make an assumption that all the viewers that watch and decide to get in on this will not just buy a one lot. (watch the volume on monday for the Jul37.50 to see how many people follow the trade.. traded a whole 11 contracts today). So assume they would buy a 5 or a 10 lot. The desk said if it moves in your direction to make it into a put spread.. ok that might work, but need to get that move in your direction first and spending $500 - $1000 to buy some contracts is not chump change.

If i had to buy this put i would look at making it a calender spread to help reduce the cost:

Buy the July 37.50 put for about $1.00
Sell the Apr 37.50 put for .20

its only .20 you say but its $200 if you are entering a 10lot. stock has to pull back 7%ish at Apr opex to get 37.50. idea is to have apr put expire worthless, lowering the cost of the july put you bought. if it drops further you can just close both legs of this spread. Breakeven using Trademonster Analyse tab at APR OPEX is down near 36. earnings look to be right before May opex so you could sell another put to get another calender spread going for may.

I want some way to lower the cost of that initial put purchase in case the thesis is wrong.